KEY
TAKEAWAYS
- DJ Industrials closing in on overhead resistance
- Weekly RRG exhibiting some sturdy reverse rotations
- Figuring out two potential pair buying and selling setups (MSFT-MRK & NKE-CAT)
The Dow Jones Industrial Index is reaching overhead resistance between 35.5k and 35.7k. Because of this upside potential is now restricted. And even when the market manages to interrupt that space, the subsequent resistance degree is already round 37k.
Nonetheless, the relative rotation graph exhibiting the rotation for all 30 members of the DJ Industrials Index reveals some doubtlessly very attention-grabbing pair commerce setups.
DJ Industrials

On the weekly chart above, that overhead resistance space is clearly seen. The earlier highs, which outline the resistance zone, date again to late 2021 and early 2022, virtually two years in the past. This makes it a vital resistance zone.
An upward break of that resistance will clearly be a really bullish sign. However the current rally, popping out of the late October low, has been very steep, and it could not be unusual to see some type of consolidation in opposition to the aforementioned resistance zone.
With overhead resistance close by, the near-term danger is now to the draw back. Trying on the chart a setback after a peak in opposition to resistance might take the Dow as little as 32.3k. This could nonetheless hold $INDU throughout the boundaries of this 12 months’s buying and selling vary.
Reverse Tails On Weekly RRG

The weekly relative rotation graph above reveals the rotations for all thirty shares contained in the Dow Jones Industrial Index. With the benchmark index nonetheless inside a buying and selling vary, among the reverse rotations which are seen on the graph counsel that a number of attention-grabbing pair buying and selling alternatives are current.

So as to clear up the RRG and put emphasis on the extra attention-grabbing rotations, I’ve taken out the tails with much less favorable traits.

So as to see if I might get affirmation, I’ve run the identical RRG on the each day timeframe.
Given the present rotational patterns, many various pair buying and selling alternatives will be discovered. I encourage you to do your personal analysis and discover out whether or not you could have a very sturdy view of particular shares or combos of shares, constructive or damaging.
I’ll choose two examples of potential pair trades from the RRGs above and take a look at the person charts.
NKE vs CAT
On the weekly RRG, Nike and Caterpillar’s tails rotate in reverse instructions. NKE is contained in the bettering quadrant and quickly heading towards main. CAT is contained in the weakening quadrant and quickly heading towards lagging. Each tails are on the extremes of the RRG and much away from the benchmark. This means an enormous potential for alpha.
NKE

NKE is nearing resistance between 110 and 115, suggesting that there’s restricted upside potential left, except NKE can clear this barrier within the coming weeks.
Nonetheless, as we’re searching for pair trades, we have to focus extra on the relative power circumstances. And these are clearly choosing up for NKE.
The JdK RS-Momentum line is already nicely above 100 and is dragging the JdK RS-Ratio line larger. When each RRG-Strains are shifting up on the identical time, this causes an RRG-heading between 0-90 levels which we all know is a sign of power.
CAT

On the worth chart, CAT has simply bounced off its rising help line. The relative efficiency, nonetheless, shouldn’t be trying that good.
The JDK RS-momentum line already dropped beneath 100 a number of weeks in the past and is now quickly dragging the RS-Ratio line decrease.
This fast decline in relative power suggests an additional underperformance for CAT within the subsequent few weeks.
Off-setting the relative power of NKE in opposition to the relative weak spot of CAT makes for a doubtlessly attention-grabbing pair-trading alternative.
MSFT vs MRK
The weekly RG particulars for Microsoft and Merck present reverse rotational patterns. MSFT has simply accomplished a rotation from main by way of weakening and is now again into main, making it one of many strongest shares, if not the strongest, on this universe.
The other goes for the story of MRK. This one rotated from lagging into bettering and is now crossing again into the lagging quadrant.
We all know that rotations that full on one aspect of the graph point out a brand new Up- or Down-leg in an already established up or down pattern.
MSFT

The current break to new all-time highs is holding up nicely. It has additionally prompted the uncooked RS-line to push to new highs the place it is usually holding. It is a sturdy mixture of information.
After a quick dip beneath 100, the JdK RS-Momentum line has now crossed again above that degree once more, dragging the RS-ratio out of its low simply above 100. This causes the tail on the RRG to push again into the main quadrant at a powerful RRG-heading.
The mix of sturdy relative power and a break to new highs on the worth chart makes Microsoft the most effective chart on this universe in the meanwhile.
MRK

MRK reached its all-time excessive in Might of this 12 months however has been in a gradual downtrend since then. The Worth Of Merck reached help simply above 100 a number of weeks in the past and remains to be hovering barely above that space in the meanwhile. A break decrease will very doubtless speed up the decline, very doubtless, towards the subsequent degree of help between 92.50 and 95.
The uncooked rs line is breaking an essential horizontal help degree finishing a topish formation. The RRG strains already picked up on the brand new downtrend in July. The current hiccup of the RS-Momentum line above 100 is the results of the sideways consolidation of relative power above help.
With uncooked RS, breaking help, and the RS momentum line dropping beneath 100, each RRG-Strains are actually as soon as once more shifting decrease whereas beneath 100. This causes the tail on the RRG to maneuver deeper into the lagging quadrant whereas touring at a damaging heading.
Each tails finishing a rotation on the identical aspect of the RRG suggests a continuation of the continuing outperformance of MSFT over MRK.
Take pleasure in your ThanksGiving weekend however #StayAlert, –Julius
Julius de Kempenaer
Senior Technical Analyst, StockCharts.com
Creator, Relative Rotation Graphs
Founder, RRG Analysis
Host of: Sector Highlight
Please discover my handles for social media channels underneath the Bio beneath.
Suggestions, feedback or questions are welcome at Juliusdk@stockcharts.com. I can not promise to answer each message, however I’ll definitely learn them and, the place fairly attainable, use the suggestions and feedback or reply questions.
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