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Canada’s client worth index rose 2.8% 12 months over 12 months in April, up from 2.4% in March. Gasoline did a lot of the harm, with costs up 28.6%. Power jumped 19.2%, and even excluding gasoline, costs nonetheless rose 2%. So, whereas inflation not seems to be just like the monster it was in 2022, it additionally hasn’t left the room.

That creates a difficult marketplace for Canadian buyers. Price-cut hopes can fade quick when gas, meals, and transport prices climb. Shoppers really feel squeezed, and firms really feel squeezed too. I’m watching two TSX shares that sit near inflation’s strain factors: Alimentation Couche-Tard (TSX:ATD) and Nutrien (TSX:NTR).

ATD

Couche-Tard operates Circle Ok, Couche-Tard, Ingo, and different banners throughout North America and Europe. It sells gas, snacks, espresso, meals, tobacco, and every day necessities. When inflation rises, consumers might lower restaurant meals or delay huge purchases. But they nonetheless cease for gasoline, espresso, and fast objects on the highway.

The most recent quarter confirmed why ATD stays on my checklist. Income rose 4.3% to US$21.8 billion within the third quarter of fiscal 2026. Adjusted earnings reached US$751 million, up 17.2% from final 12 months. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose 19.1% to US$0.81. Identical-store merchandise income additionally elevated 3.1% in Canada through the first three quarters.

That’s regular, sensible progress that doesn’t rely on a sizzling pattern. Couche-Tard may use its scale to handle provide prices, refine pricing, and preserve increasing by acquisitions. The dividend stays small, with the most recent quarterly payout at $0.215 per share, however ATD has lengthy leaned extra towards compounding than excessive earnings.

The chance comes from gas demand. Identical-store highway transportation gas volumes fell within the U.S. and Europe within the quarter, at the same time as Canada improved. If excessive costs cut back driving, margins and volumes can wobble. ATD additionally must handle acquisition prices and integration. Nonetheless, as inflation retains reshaping client behaviour, this stays one of many strongest defensive progress names on the TSX.

NTR

Nutrien inventory offers buyers a really totally different inflation angle. It’s one of many world’s largest suppliers of crop inputs and providers, with potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and retail operations. Meals inflation begins lengthy earlier than groceries hit cabinets. Fertilizer costs, crop economics, international provide, climate, and power prices all matter. Nutrien inventory sits proper in that chain.

Its first-quarter 2026 outcomes seemed a lot stronger than final 12 months. Web earnings reached US$139 million, or US$0.27 per share. Adjusted earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) got here in at US$1.11 billion, and adjusted EPS reached US$0.51. Potash adjusted EBITDA climbed to US$578 million, helped by greater international benchmarks and file gross sales volumes. Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA rose to US$482 million.

Nutrien inventory additionally returned US$409 million to shareholders by dividends and buybacks within the quarter. The corporate declared a quarterly dividend of US$0.55 per share. That earnings provides attraction, particularly for buyers who need publicity to important agriculture with out making an attempt to time crop costs completely.

The chance? Nutrien inventory can transfer sharply with fertilizer costs. It’s extra cyclical than Couche-Tard. A drop in potash or nitrogen benchmarks might strain earnings rapidly. Farmers may delay purchases if crop margins weaken. So, Nutrien inventory isn’t a basic defensive inventory, however it may profit when meals, power, and provide issues keep elevated.

Backside line

I wouldn’t purchase both solely as a result of inflation seems to be sticky. The stronger case comes from enterprise high quality. Couche-Tard has a confirmed file of disciplined progress. Nutrien inventory owns property tied to international meals safety. These traits might help buyers keep affected person when each CPI report jolts the market once more this 12 months. Plus, there’s a small, however constant, dividend to stay up for even with $7,000 in every.

Collectively, ATD and Nutrien inventory provide two methods to observe inflation. One tracks the buyer aspect. The opposite tracks the farm-input aspect. Neither inventory removes danger, however each connect with prices Canadians really feel day-after-day. If inflation lingers, these are two Canadian shares I’d preserve shut.