How a lot alcohol do you have to drink? The US authorities now vaguely, in impact, says simply don’t drink too a lot. And what qualifies as an excessive amount of? Properly, that’s as much as you.
As a part of the new federal dietary tips launched this week, the Trump administration eradicated the earlier particular really helpful limits on alcohol consumption — two drinks or much less per day for males and one drink for girls. Now, the brand new tips say “devour much less alcohol for higher well being. (It maintained the prior steering discouraging just a few sure teams — pregnant ladies and individuals who have a historical past of alcohol abuse — from consuming in any respect.) It’s a significant change that defies a rising public well being consensus that folks ought to drink as little alcohol as doable, as a result of no quantity of consuming is definitely secure.
To justify the change, Dr. Mehmet Oz, who oversees the Medicare and Medicaid packages, argued that there was no scientific proof to justify particular limits on consuming alcohol. “Within the best-case situation, I don’t assume it’s best to drink alcohol, nevertheless it does permit folks an excuse to bond and socialize,” Oz stated throughout the announcement of the brand new tips. “However the implication is, don’t have it for breakfast.”
“The overall transfer away from two glasses for males, one glass for girls — there was by no means actually good knowledge to assist that amount of alcohol consumption,” he added.
There is such knowledge — proof commissioned by the federal authorities that the Trump administration itself tried to bury forward of the dietary tips’ launch, as Vox reported just a few months in the past. However as a substitute, Oz and Well being Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have handed the alcohol trade a long-sought win in its battle towards public well being critics.
Trump and Kennedy shelved a examine on alcohol’s dangerous well being results
For the entire sordid saga, you may take a look at our characteristic story from September. However here’s a temporary recap: In early 2022, the Biden administration launched the Alcohol Consumption & Well being Examine, a brand new report on alcohol and its well being results to tell the following dietary tips due in 2025, a response to the growing proof that no quantity of alcohol is secure. The World Well being Group had made such a declaration in 2023; within the US, greater than 170,000 folks die yearly from alcohol-related causes.
Virtually as quickly as that venture started, the alcohol trade began pushing again and soliciting Congress in its efforts.
In response to this stress, Congress permitted in fall 2023 an alternate examine to be overseen by the Nationwide Academies of Science and Medication. Congressional hearings held by the lawmakers, who represented states the place alcohol is a significant trade, and letters they despatched to the Division of Well being and Human Companies underneath President Joe Biden on behalf of their constituents framed the unique report as a witch hunt towards alcohol.
Nonetheless, each research had been undertaken, and their respective authors started working. In December 2024, the Nationwide Academies report got here out and acknowledged that, with some crucial limitations, the well being results of alcohol had been marginal. However a draft model of the Alcohol Consumption & Well being Examine was posted in January 2025, shortly earlier than the top of the Biden administration, and it got here to very totally different conclusions, as I wrote not too long ago:
They broke out their findings by totally different consuming ranges — from one drink per day to a few — and targeted on well being outcomes which were confirmed to be related to alcohol use.
Their big-picture conclusion: Among the many US inhabitants, the adverse well being results of consuming alcohol begin at low ranges of consumption and start to extend sharply the extra an individual drinks.
A person consuming one drink per day has roughly a one in 1,000 probability of dying from any alcohol-related trigger, whether or not an alcohol-associated most cancers or liver illness or a drunk driving accident. Improve that to 2 drinks per day, and the percentages enhance to 1 in 25.
That’s exactly the sort of proof that might recommend a selected restrict on alcohol consumption can be acceptable — the sort of proof that Oz claimed doesn’t exist.
The ultimate model of the Alcohol Consumption & Well being Examine was shelved — and nonetheless has not been revealed by the Trump administration. They determined to squash its public launch, as I reported final fall, at the same time as they claimed it will be considered for the forthcoming dietary tips.
There was such a furor over that call that even the authors of the Nationwide Academies report later revealed a commentary within the journal JAMA to clarify that their examine shouldn’t be over-interpreted to justify extra consuming or eliminating limits on consuming alcohol.
However, that’s precisely what occurred within the new dietary tips — a coverage victory cheered by beer, wine, and liquor producers. The bounds are…no matter you need them to be.
“Dr. Oz should have thrown again just a few cocktails for breakfast earlier than making that remark,” Mike Marshall, president and CEO of the US Alcohol Coverage Alliance, instructed me. “The federal authorities’s personal report, the Alcohol Consumption & Well being examine, made it clear that there’s overwhelming proof that decreasing consumption to lower than 2 drinks per day dramatically reduces the prospect of dying on account of alcohol. Simply because the trade, through Congress, stated ‘don’t learn it’ doesn’t imply the report by no means existed.”
Replace, January 9, 5 pm ET: This story was initially revealed on January 9 and up to date to incorporate extra context from Oz’s feedback on the dietary tips announcement this week.
