On the previous week, in the US the main target was on the January labour market report, the publication of which had been postponed earlier. The information confirmed the resilience of employment and the absence of a pointy cooling within the economic system, which supported cautious expectations of a Fed fee reduce. Extra affect got here from inflation statistics: January CPI didn’t give the market a transparent sign for fast coverage easing, sustaining rigidity in yields and the foreign money phase. In Europe, macroeconomic statistics for This fall 2025 total indicated weak however constructive progress with out indicators of acceleration, whereas in commodity markets the OPEC report (MOMR) grew to become a separate driver for oil, leaving quotations in a zone of heightened sensitivity to the steadiness of provide and demand. General, the week confirmed financial resilience amid persistent inflationary stress, which saved markets in a mode of elevated volatility with out forming a brand new sustainable development.
💶 EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair completed the week at 1.1868. Regardless of slight progress, the bullish momentum stays weak, and the pair remains to be in a consolidation part. Subsequent week a brand new try to interrupt by way of resistance at 1.1925 is feasible. In case of success this can open the best way to 1.2000 and 1.2080. A decline to assist within the 1.1775-1.1800 zone can’t be excluded both. If it doesn’t maintain, this will likely result in a fall to the 1.1700 space, the subsequent assist is within the 1.1580-1.1620 zone, adopted by 1.1470-1.1500.
🟠 Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Ranging from 07 February BTC/USD has been transferring in a slender channel 65,100-72,260 alongside the Pivot Level 70,000, which confirms the absence of apparent drivers. Once they seem, a assured breakout of the channel in both route could strengthen the native momentum and lead both to progress to the 75,000-80,000 zone, or to a fall to 63,000 and additional – to assist at 59,800. Extra distant targets: for the bulls – a return to the 85,000-90,000 hall, for the bears – 54,000 and 49,000.
🛢 Brent Oil
For the third week in a row Brent oil has been buying and selling close to the higher boundary of the long-term descending channel, during which it has been transferring since October 2023. The most recent level this time was set at 67.18 {dollars} per barrel. A variety of consultants imagine that restoration makes an attempt are corrective in nature. Bulls could attempt to retest the 70.45 resistance zone with a goal of 72.60-72.75. A information background beneficial for bears could result in a return of Brent to the centre of the long-term channel. Helps 66.30, 65.00 and 62.70.
🥇 Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold closed at 5,043 {dollars} per ounce. Makes an attempt to interrupt above the 5,090-5,120 resistance zone haven’t but been profitable. Although the elemental construction stays bullish, a downward correction can’t be excluded. The closest assist – 4,870, the subsequent – on the line of medium-term ascending assist within the 4,770-4,800 space. Its breakout could result in a deeper correction to 4,400-4,530. For bulls the targets are 5,180, 5,450 and 6,000.
📈 Key Occasions and Baseline Eventualities of the Week
On the upcoming week, on 17 February preliminary knowledge on the ZEW Financial Sentiment Index in Germany and the Eurozone will likely be revealed. In the US, on 18 February the Main Financial Indicators index and the minutes of the newest FOMC assembly will likely be launched, the API report on US crude oil inventories may even be revealed. On Thursday, 19 February, commerce steadiness knowledge and the official EIA oil stock report in the US are anticipated. On Friday the market’s consideration will likely be targeted on the preliminary estimate of US GDP for This fall, in addition to on statistics on private revenue and spending and the ultimate College of Michigan Shopper Sentiment Index.
Baseline situations: EUR/USD – reasonably bullish whereas the value holds above 1.1775. BTC/USD – neutral-to-bearish whereas the value is beneath 75,500-80,000. Brent – bearish whereas quotations are beneath 70.45. XAU/USD – bullish whereas costs maintain above 4,770-4,800.
