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Electrical automobile (EV) incentives simply made a shock comeback, and Canadian buyers ought to concentrate. Rebates can flip a “perhaps later” buy right into a signed deal, and that may pull charging, manufacturing, and fleet spending ahead. That demand ripple doesn’t simply assist carmakers. It might elevate the broader provide chain, together with Canadian producers linked to electrified transit.
On Feb. 5, 2026, Ottawa introduced a brand new Electrical Automobile Affordability Program with $2.3 billion in funding. It stated Canadians can obtain as much as $5,000 for battery-electric or gas cell electrical automobiles and as much as $2,500 for plug-in hybrids, with a $50,000 value cap for plug-in hybrids. It additionally stated the cap is not going to apply to Canadian-made EVs and plug-in hybrids, and incentives will solely apply to automobiles produced in international locations with a free commerce settlement. So, how can buyers participate?
NFI
Whereas not an everyday EV inventory, NFI Group (TSX:NFI) builds buses and coaches, plus components and help, by manufacturers like New Flyer, Motor Coach Industries, and Alexander Dennis. It sits in a sensible nook of electrification: public transit, shuttles, and fleet refresh cycles. The EV inventory has been risky, although after plunging in share value, the EV inventory has surged 11% yr up to now and 52% within the final yr.
Operationally, the previous yr combined actual progress with a really public headache. On the progress aspect, NFI improved deliveries and pricing and stored a backlog that helps manufacturing visibility. On the finish of its third quarter of 2025, it reported a backlog of $13.2 billion, and it stated zero-emission buses represented 35.1% of complete backlog on an equivalent-unit foundation.
Earnings help
Now for the numbers that matter. Within the third quarter ended Sept. 28, 2025, NFI reported income of $879.9 million, up from $711.3 million a yr earlier. It posted a web lack of $140.9 million, or $1.18 per share, largely as a result of it recorded a $229.9 million guarantee provision tied to a battery recall.
Right here is the half that makes the loss really feel extra like a detour than a lifeless finish. NFI additionally reported adjusted web earnings of $12.1 million, or $0.10 per share, and adjusted earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $80.9 million, up 52.1% yr over yr. It reported liquidity of $386.0 million at quarter-end, which supplies it extra respiratory room whereas it really works by manufacturing and repair points.
Trying forward
Administration additionally tried to de-risk the EV aspect of the story. It stated it had shifted its major battery provide for brand spanking new New Flyer battery-electric buses to a distinct provider that has supplied battery techniques since 2023. It additionally stated it expects enchancment into 2026 and past because it executes backlog, lifts manufacturing, and leans on higher-margin models and aftermarket development. The danger is that one other disruption, tighter municipal budgets, or slower funding approvals can delay deliveries and push money circulate round, which may whipsaw the share value.
With a market capitalization of round $2 billion, it could work for growth-focused buyers who can deal with bumps and who need publicity to electrification past passenger automobiles. I might purchase it for the potential earnings restoration, not for revenue at present, and I might dimension it like a spicy aspect dish, not the entire meal. If the recall prices fade and margins hold bettering, the EV inventory has room to shock. If not, it could punish impatience quick.
Backside line
Yet one more factor: this incentive headline doesn’t assure a straight line up. NFI wins when fleets place orders and when it delivers on schedule. Watch the following outcomes for margin progress and for any recent guarantee surprises. If you’d like a clear dividend machine, that is the improper instrument. If you’d like a turnaround tied to electrification demand, it could match inside a diversified plan.
