Canada’s power sector, particularly oil and fuel, is beneath strain in January amid altering dynamics, together with a possible new competitor. Nonetheless, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed confidence that the nation will stay aggressive even with a resurgent Venezuelan oil.
Carney stated, “Canadian oil shall be aggressive as a result of it’s low-risk, clearly low-risk, low price.” Canadian crude makes up most of U.S. imports, however quantity might fall if the Trump administration succeeds in taking on Venezuela’s oil business and increasing manufacturing. A part of the plan is to convey down world oil costs to under US$50 per barrel.
Regardless of the uncertainty and, to some extent, panic, Suncor Power (TSX:SU) and Cenovus Power (TSX:CVE) are price watching in 2026. Like Venezuela, Canada’s oil sands produce heavy crude. Each Canadian oil and fuel firms personal refineries designed for heavy crude. The benefit is that they’ll seize the complete worth chain and maintain dividend funds.
Improved monetary energy
Suncor Power boasts an built-in enterprise mannequin that helps mitigate crude oil worth volatility and supplies earnings stability. The $78 billion absolutely built-in power firm additionally has a big refining scale, which is one-third of its diversified money move base. Petro-Canada retail and upstream manufacturing are the opposite two.
In accordance with administration, Suncor achieved a report operational efficiency in This fall and full-year 2025. Its President and CEO, Wealthy Kruger, added, “We achieved our bold 2024 Investor Day three-year targets a full yr forward of schedule whereas setting new information in personnel and course of security, upstream manufacturing (909,000 barrels per day) and refining utilization (108%).”
Due to considerably improved monetary energy, Suncor returned round $11.5 billion (share buybacks and dividends) to shareholders over the past two years. In case you make investments right this moment, the share worth is $64.63, and the dividend yield is 3.7%.
Stronger development and scale
Cenovus Power operates high-quality oil sands initiatives and advantages from a robust, low-cost asset base. The $43.1 billion firm strengthened its oil sands portfolio following the acquisition of MEG Power in late November 2025.
Administration expects upstream manufacturing development of 4% in 2026 to 945,000–985,000 barrels of oil equal per day (boe/d). The combination with MEG Power will even seize worth throughout the chain and reduce pure manufacturing publicity. For 2026, Cenovus initiatives a throughput of 430,000 to 450,000 barrels per day, with a utilization price of 91–95%.
Cenovus will deal with the U.S. refining portfolio with bodily entry to Canadian crude. Additionally, the corporate will prioritize heavy conversion capability to serve massive, liquid product gross sales markets. Even when the worth drops to US$45 per barrel (WTI), the adjusted funds move can cowl the 2026 sustaining capital and base dividend.
CVE trades at $23.09 per share and pays a 3.5% dividend. Many market analysts are bullish on MEG Power’s strategic match and preserve a constructive outlook.
Sturdy Buys
Whereas the scenario is fluid, U.S. President Donald Trump faces a monumental problem in restoring Venezuela’s oil infrastructure, to not point out the dimensions of funding required and safety dangers.
In the meantime, TSX’s power sector, up 0.13% year-to-date, has but to expertise a pointy decline. Suncor Power and Cenovus Power are robust buys, given their built-in enterprise fashions and structural benefit.
