Seoul, South Korea – South Korean President Lee Jae-myung is ready to fulfill United States President Donald Trump for the primary time in a high-stakes go to to his nation’s closest and most essential ally.
After a one-day assembly with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tokyo, Lee arrived in Washington, DC, on Sunday forward of an official working-level assembly on the White Home with Trump.
Will probably be the primary time the 2 heads of state meet.
Their summit follows a commerce deal in July wherein Washington agreed to chop its reciprocal tariff on South Korea to fifteen % from an initially proposed 25 %.
The assembly is essential for South Korea, whose engagement with the Trump administration was disrupted by home political turmoil, ignited by the temporary declaration of martial regulation introduced in December by the nation’s impeached former president, Yoon Suk-yeol.
Dialogue will give attention to ironing out particulars of the unwritten July commerce deal, which entails South Korea agreeing to purchase $100bn in US power and make investments $350bn within the US economic system.
On high of these dizzying sums are direct investments within the US, that are anticipated from South Korean firms, and which Trump has talked about will probably be determined throughout their talks.
Accompanied by first girl Kim Hea-kyung, Lee will lead a delegation fashioned by the heads of South Korean high conglomerates, together with Samsung Electronics, SK Group, Hyundai Motor and LG Group.
The 4 firms alone are already recognized to contribute roughly 126 trillion received ($91.2bn) in direct investments to the US, in keeping with the South Korean day by day Maeil Enterprise Newspaper.
Choi Yoon-jung, a principal analysis fellow on the Sejong Institute in Seoul, stated Lee must be deliberate and direct with Trump within the talks, as “South Korea is in a tricky predicament when it comes to commerce with the US in comparison with the previous”.
“Will probably be essential for President Lee to clarify how investments will probably be designed to serve US nationwide pursuits and to remind Trump that the 2 nations are shut buying and selling companions who went via massive ordeals to grasp their Free Commerce Settlement over twenty years in the past,” Choi informed Al Jazeera.
Mason Richey, a professor of worldwide politics on the Hankuk College of International Research (HUFS), stated the course of the talks on investments is more likely to be “unpredictable”.
“Not solely are the present 15 % tariffs overwhelmingly more likely to keep on, however the funding a part of the deal is more likely to stay unclear and topic to unpredictable adjustment by the White Home,” Richey informed Al Jazeera.
Analysts say shipbuilding is one space the place Trump clearly needs to have South Korea as a key companion to play catch-up to China’s naval fleet, which leads when it comes to sheer numbers and can be making technological developments.
Officers in Seoul have beforehand acknowledged {that a} key element of the tariff take care of Washington would come with a partnership value about $150bn to help in rebuilding the US shipbuilding business.
To that finish, after visiting the White Home, Lee will head to Philadelphia to go to the Philly Shipyard, which was purchased by the South Korean firm Hanwha Group final yr.
Analysts additionally say that battery manufacturing and semiconductors are another sectors the place Trump has set clear aims to extend US capability, and the place South Korea has proven willingness and curiosity in being that companion.
“The South Korean authorities can be prepared to actively take part within the ‘modernisation’ of its alliance with the US, that might embrace growing contributions to upholding the area’s safety and improvement,” stated the Sejong Institute’s Choi.
One other main dialogue level will probably be Seoul and Washington’s defence posture relating to the rising threats from North Korea, in addition to the event of a strategic alliance to deal with the altering worldwide safety and financial atmosphere.
“The pressures for the function of US forces on the Korean Peninsula to evolve has been rising for years,” Jenny City, the director of the Washington, DC-based analysis programme 38 North, informed Al Jazeera.
This evolution was particularly so with nice energy competitors growing from China, City stated.
“The Trump administration is targeted on the right way to maximise assets for US pursuits and priorities, so it’s probably that some modifications will probably be made throughout this time period,” City stated.
“How drastic or dramatic these modifications will depend upon quite a lot of components, together with the state of the US home political infrastructure that gives checks and balances to govt selections,” she stated.
A US Senate defence coverage invoice for fiscal yr 2026 features a ban on the usage of funds to cut back the variety of US Forces Korea (USFK) troops to under the present stage of 28,500 service members.
“This makes it unlikely that there will probably be a right away change in troop deployment numbers in South Korea,” Choi stated.
“So, the massive level of competition would be the job project of the troops to match US pursuits. I believe there’s a chance of Trump asking South Korea to tackle a much bigger function in regional safety, resembling participating within the battle involving Taiwan.”
Monetary negotiations between Trump and Lee can also tip into safety particulars, because the US president has recurrently known as for South Korea to pay extra for the US troops stationed on its soil.
Trump has made that very same name since his first presidential time period.
Along with offering greater than $1bn for the presence of USFK forces, South Korea additionally paid the complete price of constructing Camp Humphreys, the most important US base abroad, located 64km (39 miles) south of Seoul.
Trump has stated that he needs defence spending to succeed in nearer to five % of gross home product (GDP) for all US allies.
As we speak, South Korea’s defence price range is at 3.5 % of GDP.
Switch of wartime operational command – referring to the switch of management of South Korean forces throughout wartime from the US to South Korea – has lengthy been a degree of dialogue between Seoul and Washington.
Beneath the Lee administration’s five-year governance plan, Seoul hopes to have the transition occur by 2030.
The Trump-Lee assembly additionally comes after North Korean chief Kim Jong Un’s highly effective sister just lately dismissed Washington and Seoul’s acknowledged needs to restart diplomacy aimed toward defusing Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.
Kim Yo Jong stated that Seoul might by no means be a “diplomatic companion” with Pyongyang.
For City, there have been “fascinating nuances” in Kim Yo Jong’s statements.
“Whereas rejecting any sort of denuclearisation narrative as the idea of negotiations, her statements did create a gap for the US to have interaction North Korea to enhance total relations,” City stated.
“Kim recommended that there’s a motive for 2 nations with nuclear weapons to keep away from confrontational relations. This begs the query of whether or not the US is definitely keen on constructing a distinct relationship with North Korea that’s not hinged on denuclearisation, and the way US allies would see such an agenda,” City stated.
For Richey, the HUFS professor, the opportunity of “Trump bypassing Lee in diplomacy with North Korea” poses a critical danger for South Korea down the highway, when it comes to affect and safety.
In distinction to right this moment’s lack of contact between Washington and Pyongyang, Trump’s first presidential time period featured a suspension of US army workout routines with South Korea and three separate conferences between the US president and North Korea’s Kim.
His want to earn a Nobel Peace Prize might additionally supply one other set of motivations for Trump to increase a US hand of friendship to Kim.
The South Korean president’s White Home go to additionally coincides with annual, large-scale South Korean and US joint army workout routines, which run for 11 days.
Throughout a go to to North Korea’s most superior warship final week, Kim denounced the drills as rehearsals for an invasion of North Korea and “an apparent expression of their will to impress struggle”.
Additionally, final week, Past Parallel, a venture of the Washington-based Heart for Strategic and Worldwide Research, unveiled an undocumented North Korean missile base about 25km (15.5 miles) from the border with China, which probably has intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) able to reaching the US.
City added that Russia might additionally play a cameo function on this summit.
“Lee could convey up the difficulty of how Russia’s relations with North Korea, particularly their army cooperation, poses potential risks to the alliance’s safety pursuits,” she stated.
“Talks might wind as much as consideration of whether or not Trump’s relationship with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin could assist mitigate the scenario,” she stated.
North Korea’s latest dealings with Russia provides one other dimension to those inter-country relationships, as reciprocal exchanges of army troops for the receipt of meals, power, money, weapons and expertise have created a steady strategic bond between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Moreover, North Korea has proven an curiosity in strengthening ties with one other of the US’s largest rivals – China.
“In the end, I imagine Trump will proceed to make overtures towards North Korea,” Choi stated.
“He could appear to be pushing an isolationist technique, however the matter of truth is that the US continues to be in the course of negotiations and talks at any time when a giant battle arises on the earth,” she stated.
