US October core CPI +0.3% vs +0.2% expected

Prior core m/m was +0.3%Core unrounded +0.297%Core CPI y/y not published vs +2.6% priorCore unrounded y/y not published vs +2.564% priorHeadline CPI m/m +0.4% vs +0.3% expected (prior +0.6%)Headline CPI y/y not published vs 3.7% priorUnrounded not published vs +3.738% priorCore goods +0.2% vs +0.3% m/m priorReal weekly earnings 0.0% vs -0.5% prior (revised to -0.4%)Supercore m/m roughly +0.4%, with just over half driven by services less energy servicesKey sub-components:Owners’ equivalent rent: +0.3% vs +0.3% priorRent of primary residence: +0.2% vs +0.2% priorMotor vehicle insurance: +0.7% vs +0.1% priorAirfares: +0.4% vs +1.2% priorUsed cars: -1.2% vs +0.7% priorApparel: +0.1% vs +0.3% priorMedical care: +0.3% vs +0.1% priorLodging away from home: +0.6% vs +2.0% priorEnergy m/m: +0.7% vs +5.2% priorGasoline m/m: +1.0% vs +9.1% priorFood m/m: +0.5% vs 0.0% priorNew vehicles: +0.2% vs +0.2% priorNote that the BLS did not collect survey data for October 2025 because of a lapse in appropriations during the government shutdown.

That also makes many of the numbers impossible to calculate.Summing the BLS contribution table (food 0.064, energy 0.053, core 0.234) gives about +0.35% unrounded, which makes the headline number a tad better than it looks.Following Waller's hawkish comments, the market is fully priced for a December hike and is pricing in 60 bps of hiking in the year ahead.

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