UK April ILO unemployment rate 4.9% vs 5.0% expected

• Prior 5.0%
• Employment change 100k vs 75k expected
• Prior 148k
• Average weekly earnings +4.4% vs +4.0% 3m/y expected
• Prior +4.1% (revised to +4.4%)
• Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.4% vs +3.2% 3m/y expected
• Prior +3.4%
• May payrolls change +2k
• Prior -100k (revised to -53k)

This is a good report with data beating expectations across the board, and more worryingly for the BoE, wage growth firming up again. The British Pound strengthened following the jobs data release as traders will likely bring forward rate hike probabilities (though not that much).

Keep in mind that with the end of the US-Iran war we can expect things to get even better in the next months. The BoE will likely keep the door open for tightening if necessary as the chances for rate cuts in 2026 look pretty much nil.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.