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Saturday, July 12, 2025

Premium Watchlist Recap: RBA Financial Coverage Assertion (July 2025)


The Reserve Financial institution of Australia (RBA) stunned the markets with a choice to maintain rates of interest on maintain at 3.85% as a substitute of slicing to three.60%. How did our watchlist setups for this top-tier catalyst fare?

Watchlists are worth outlook & technique discussions supported by each basic & technical evaluation, an important step in the direction of making a top quality discretionary commerce concept earlier than engaged on a threat & commerce administration plan.

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The Setup 

  • What We Have been Watching: RBA Financial Coverage Assertion (July 2025)
  • The Expectation: Rate of interest lower from 3.85% to three.60%
  • Knowledge consequence: Charges maintained at 3.85% whereas RBA Governor Bullock reiterated “cautious, gradual stance” on easing
  • Market surroundings surrounding the occasion: Impartial to risk-on; Easing geopolitical issues and cautious risk-taking as merchants began shrugging off tariff issues

Occasion End result: 

The RBA delivered a shock resolution to maintain charges on maintain at 3.85% regardless of the market consensus of a 0.25% rate of interest lower. The choice was made in a cut up 6-3 vote, which additionally marked the primary time the central financial institution printed its voting breakdown.

Key factors from the RBA assertion:

  • Current month-to-month CPI information got here in “barely stronger than anticipated”
  • Board desires extra affirmation that inflation stays on monitor for two.5%
  • Cited heightened uncertainty about world commerce insurance policies and home demand

In the course of the press convention, RBA Governor Bullock advised additional cuts stay probably as soon as they achieve extra confidence within the inflation trajectory. The central financial institution famous that with charges already 50 foundation factors decrease than 5 months in the past, they may afford to attend for extra information.

Elementary Bias Triggered: Bullish AUD Setups

Market sentiment swung between warning and optimism all through the week as merchants navigated tariff uncertainties forward of the July 9 deadline.

The week opened with threat aversion after Trump threatened 10% tariffs on BRICS nations and introduced 25% levies on Japan and South Korea by August 1. This sparked safe-haven flows into gold and the greenback whereas pressuring threat property.


A transient bump in risk-taking was seen main as much as the RBA resolution when Trump talked about in a press briefing that the August 1 deadline is agency however “topic to negotiations” and that he’s “open to different concepts,” whilst extra tariff letters had been being despatched out.

A turning level got here with the FOMC minutes launch on Wednesday, revealing a rising divide amongst policymakers on the size and timing of future rate of interest cuts. This dovish shock triggered a pointy drop in Treasury yields and broad greenback weak spot whereas lifting equities and bitcoin to new highs above $116,000.

Power markets noticed vital volatility, with WTI crude initially surging on Houthi assaults within the Crimson Sea and OPEC+ manufacturing will increase, earlier than reversing on weak Chinese language demand forecasts. The Australian greenback emerged as a star performer after the RBA stunned markets by holding charges at 3.85%, whereas Fed officers’ feedback about potential fee cuts regardless of tariff-induced inflation saved threat urge for food supported, at the least till Trump hit Canada with a 35% menace on Friday!

AUD/CHF: Web Bullish AUD Occasion consequence + Threat-On Situation = Arguably greatest odds of a web optimistic consequence

AUD/CHF 1-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

AUD/CHF 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

In our watchlist, we anticipated that AUD/CHF would discover help on the backside of its descending channel in case the RBA stunned with a choice to carry as a substitute of slicing by 0.25%. Our thesis was primarily based on a mixture of potential risk-on flows from easing world commerce tensions and dovish expectations for the SNB.

Though the pair already bounced off the channel backside forward of the occasion as a consequence of cautious optimism amid the U.S. tariff deadline extension, the precise occasion nonetheless triggered a bullish AUD response and a sustained rally to the channel resistance and past.

AUD/CHF hovered close to the highest of its channel as risk-off flows picked up following affirmation that the tariff deal deadline was pushed to August 1. That extension saved uncertainty in play and inspired some merchants to lock in positive aspects.

The subsequent day, the FOMC minutes confirmed that “a few” members had been in favor of a July fee lower. That weighed on U.S. 10-year yields and the greenback, giving the Swiss franc a carry as safe-haven demand returned. AUD/CHF pulled again towards pre-event ranges close to the S1 help.

Nonetheless, the pair discovered its footing and staged a stronger breakout from the channel later within the week, supported by dovish Fed commentary that saved the door open for decrease U.S. borrowing prices. Merchants additionally shrugged off contemporary tariff threats and as a substitute priced in stronger demand for equities and renewed hopes for U.S. commerce offers.

Not Eligible to maneuver past Watchlist – Bearish AUD Setups and GBP/AUD quick technique

GBP/AUD: Bullish AUD Occasion consequence + Threat-Off Situation 

GBP/AUD 4-hour Forex Chart by TradingView

GBP/AUD 4-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

Whereas the occasion consequence supported a bearish setup on GBP/AUD, the broader threat temper heading into the RBA resolution didn’t fairly match. Markets had been leaning optimistic, probably hoping for one more “TACO” situation or progress on commerce offers after the tariff deadline was pushed again.

Nonetheless, the RBA shock would have performed out properly for the pair, which had already bounced off the vary resistance zone close to R1 and the two.1000 main psychological stage we had our eyes on.

GBP/AUD saved the bearish momentum going under the pivot level, paused for a fast pullback, then resumed its slide right down to the vary help at S1 and past.

Urge for food for European currencies pale as U.S.-EU commerce talks stay unsure and the U.S. rolled out extra tariff warnings. In the meantime, threat sentiment turned extra optimistic, and merchants dismissed the unimplemented threats, giving commodity currencies just like the Aussie a contemporary increase. Lastly, GBP was knocked decrease on Friday because of weaker-than-expected UK GDP updates, sending GBP/AUD to contemporary intraweek lows just a few hours forward of the shut.

AUD/NZD Quick: Web Bearish AUD Occasion consequence + Threat-Off Situation 

AUD/NZD 1-hour Forex

AUD/NZD 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

AUD/NZD dipped towards the Pivot Level stage forward of the RBA resolution, however that transfer wasn’t actually in regards to the RBA’s stance. The drop probably mirrored broader threat jitters tied to tariff uncertainty, particularly after the U.S. slapped a 50 p.c tariff on copper imports, a transfer that weighed on the Aussie earlier than the occasion even kicked off.

As soon as the RBA stunned markets by holding charges regular, AUD/NZD shortly popped increased, leaping from round 1.0825 to above 1.0870. The choice marked a transparent coverage divergence from the RBNZ, which had saved its dovish tone intact this week.

From there, the pair prolonged its positive aspects because the Aussie drew extra help from the pickup in threat urge for food than the New Zealand greenback did. Optimism over commerce offers, contemporary Fed fee lower speculations, and broad USD weak spot gave the foreign money a strong tailwind.

AUD/JPY Lengthy: Bearish AUD Occasion consequence + Threat-On Situation 

AUD/JPY 1-hour Forex

AUD/JPY 1-hour Foreign exchange Chart by TradingView

Our unique dialogue on AUD/JPY was invalidated immediately with the RBA shock, however for many who adjusted to the brand new info and tailored to it, probably may have seen favorable outcomes.

In contrast to in our technique setup, AUD/JPY didn’t drop nearer to the channel help earlier than the RBA resolution. The 94.40 stage held agency, and as a substitute of dipping, the pair turned increased forward of the occasion because the yen took a success following the U.S. announcement of a 25% tariff on Japanese items.

That anti-yen sentiment spilled into Tuesday and certain helped gasoline AUD/JPY’s sharp transfer increased after the RBA stunned with a fee maintain. The pair broke above its earlier July highs, then paused for a quick pullback on Wednesday because the FOMC minutes boosted Fed fee lower expectations and gave the yen a short-lived carry.

By the top of the week, AUD/JPY was again on the transfer, breaking by the R2 Pivot Level resistance as merchants probably leaned on that RBA maintain shock, and falling odds of BOJ fee hikes after weaker-than-expected Japanese PPI information on Friday.

The Verdict

Our basic evaluation and watch situation primarily based on bettering threat urge for food and a web optimistic AUD consequence leaned in favor of a possible lengthy AUD/CHF setup.

Our technical evaluation nailed the channel backside help zone as a possible space of curiosity for lengthy entries forward of the occasion, plus the opportunity of the pair sustaining its bounce momentum again above S1 and the pivot level stage if sentiment continued to lean in favor of threat currencies after the RBA resolution.

And because of further risk-on flows from the FOMC minutes and Fed rhetoric within the latter a part of the week, AUD/CHF was poised to increase its upside previous the channel resistance onto R1 then R2.

General, we assess this as probably supportive of a web optimistic consequence since AUD was already having fun with a little bit of a risk-on increase pre-event and managed to carry its floor earlier than one other push increased on Thursday.

The alignment of basic and technical components made for a simple play: Tariffs deadline delay supported risk-taking, coverage divergence between RBA and SNB highlighted in shock maintain resolution, and Fed easing narrative led to a different wave increased.

Nonetheless, commerce administration and execution would have performed a minor function, as short-term pullbacks throughout the RBA press convention and tariffs bulletins in a while may have provided higher entry alternatives with increased return-on-risk in comparison with breakout performs.

Key Takeaways: 

Function of Exterior Elements

With all of the market concentrate on tariff developments, it’s no shock that precise bulletins and even threats of countermeasures have induced enormous swings in sentiment, taking part in a key function within the consequence of the AUD setups.

Commerce headlines and Trump’s Fact Social posts may have gone both manner, so the significance of being fast in your toes when it comes to actively managing open positions can’t be overstated, particularly for the reason that RBA resolution came about early within the week earlier than an entire host of different market occasions unfolded.

Making Entry and Threat Changes

Whereas the watchlist setups pinpointed key inflection factors for commerce entry targets, a number of market developments main as much as the precise RBA occasion already allowed the degrees to carry and a few momentum to come back into play.

Changes to entry ranges to account for these worth actions must also include acceptable adjustments to cease losses and/or place sizes to make sure correct threat administration whereas staying versatile with targets. On this case, sustaining a bullish AUD bias regardless of midweek dips would have saved AUD/CHF in a strong place to benefit from the post-FOMC threat rally previous preliminary conservative targets.

The foreign exchange evaluation content material supplied in Babypips.com is meant solely for informational functions solely. The technical and basic situations mentioned are offered to focus on and educate on how one can spot potential market alternatives which will warrant additional impartial analysis and due diligence. This content material exhibits how we cowl a portion of the complete buying and selling course of, and doesn’t represent that we ever give particular funding or buying and selling recommendation. The setups and analyses offered on Babypips.com are very probably not appropriate for all portfolios or buying and selling kinds.

Commerce and threat administration are the only real accountability of every particular person dealer. All buying and selling choices and their subsequent outcomes are the unique accountability of the person making them. Please commerce responsibly.

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