Merchants are shopping for “dangerous” belongings in the present day and EUR/USD is benefiting from the intraday development!
How excessive can EUR/USD fly earlier than it attracts promoting strain once more?
Earlier than shifting on, ICYMI, yesterday’s watchlist checked out EUR/AUD’s vary resistance after Australia printed a robust inflation report. Be sure you take a look at if it’s nonetheless a very good play!
And now for the headlines that rocked the markets within the final buying and selling periods:
Recent Market Headlines & Financial Knowledge:
U.S. Sturdy Items Orders for August: 0.2% m/m (-1.4% m/m forecast; -5.6% m/m earlier); Core Sturdy Items Orders got here in at 0.4% m/m (0.6% m/m forecast; 0.1% m/m earlier)
SNB’s quarterly bulletin: SNB stored coverage charge at 1.75% to counter inflationary strain. SNB is open to additional tightening if wanted and prepared to intervene in foreign exchange markets. Deposits might be remunerated at 1.25% above a sure threshold.
EIA crude oil stock for week ending Sept. 22, 2023: -2.17M bbl (-2.14Mbbl earlier change) to 416.3M bbl
Buying and selling of Evergrande shares halted after its founder was reportedly positioned below police surveillance and fears of collapse grew
ANZ: New Zealand’s enterprise confidence index turned constructive, up from -3.7 to 1.5 in September; Jury stays out on whether or not costs are falling “quick sufficient to deliver core inflation pressures down in a well timed vogue”
Australia’s retail gross sales slowed down from 0.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m in August as shoppers reacted to increased dwelling bills and borrowing prices
North Rhine Westphalia (Germany) CPI slowed down from 0.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m in September
Spain’s CPI accelerated from 5.9% y/y to 4.2% y/y in September
Value Motion Information
Overlay of GBP Pairs 15-min Chart
There have been no U.Ok.-related experiences launched earlier in the present day however the British pound gave danger belongings like AUD and NZD a very good battle over in the present day’s greatest mover.
One attainable purpose for GBP’s upswings throughout the board is the U.Ok. 10-year bond yields leaping above the carefully watched 4.4% threshold – the very best since September 11! – and attracting demand for the British pound.
As of writing, GBP is registering probably the most positive factors in opposition to USD and CAD and is barely barely stronger than AUD and NZD.
ECB’s financial bulletin at 8:00 am GMT
U.S. remaining GDP at 12:30 pm GMT
U.S. preliminary jobless claims at 12:30 pm GMT
FOMC member Austan Goolsbee to present a speech at 1:00 pm GMT
U.S. pending house gross sales at 2:00 pm GMT
FOMC member Lisa Prepare dinner to present a speech at 5:00 pm GMT
FOMC Chairman Powell to present a speech at 8:00 pm GMT
Tokyo’s core CPI at 11:30 pm GMT
Japan’s unemployment charge at 11:30 pm GMT
Japan’s preliminary industrial manufacturing at 11:50 pm GMT
Japan’s retail gross sales at 11:30 pm GMT
Use our new Forex Warmth Map to shortly see a visible overview of the foreign exchange market’s value motion! 🔥 🗺️
EUR/USD 15-min Foreign exchange Chart by TV
In case you missed it, CPI knowledge revealed from Spain earlier in the present day supported a “increased for longer” plan for the ECB’s rates of interest.
It additionally didn’t harm that merchants are extra open to taking dangers after days of weaknesses.
EUR/USD, specifically, noticed a Double Backside sample close to the 1.0500 main psychological deal with and is now buying and selling above the 1.0525 mark.
How excessive can EUR/USD fly earlier than sufficient sellers step in to increase the pair’s weeks-long downtrend?
Merchants can maintain shut tabs on the 1.0560 – 1.0570 zone that’s kinda near the R1 (1.0560) Pivot Level stage and 200 SMA resistance within the 15-minute time-frame.
If we don’t see contemporary catalysts to bolster the “risk-friendly” vibe within the markets, then EUR/USD’s upswing could lose momentum.
That is the place in the present day’s U.S. knowledge releases are available. In just a few hours, we’ll see Uncle Sam’s remaining Q2 GDP studying, preliminary jobless claims, and pending house gross sales. Fed Chairman Powell will even give a speech!
If in the present day’s U.S. experiences encourage risk-taking throughout the U.S. session, then EUR/USD may revisit increased areas of curiosity like 1.0600 earlier than taking a chill capsule from its upswing.
But when the U.S. knowledge releases help a “gentle touchdown” state of affairs for the U.S. financial system, or if Powell’s speech underscores the Fed’s extra hawkish bias in comparison with its friends, then EUR/USD may even see bearish candlesticks and return to its weekly lows close to 1.0500.
