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By Senior Market Strategist | February 23, 2026 | 13:05 Server Time | BTCUSD Stay Evaluation

Market Context & Session Stream

It is Monday, February 23, 2026, and BTCUSD is buying and selling at 65,756 in the course of the high-stakes London-New York session overlap at 13:05 server time. That is no strange begin to the buying and selling week—Bitcoin is staring down the barrel of a traditional post-weekend liquidity squeeze, amplified by the skinny volumes of the previous Asian session. Let’s rewind and unpack the session circulation meticulously as a result of in crypto, particularly BTC, the transition from low-volume Asian chop to the aggressive capital flows of London and New York could make or break multimillion-dollar positions.

The weekend was predictably quiet, with BTC consolidating across the 67,000-68,000 zone after Friday’s combined shut. However as Asia kicked off at 00:00 server time, we noticed the primary cracks: a delicate drift decrease, testing the Earlier Day Low (PDL) at 67,758 with out conviction. Quantity was anemic—typical Sunday-Monday bleed from retail positioning—however the actual story unfolded in Tokyo/Sydney hours. Sellers probed aggressively, pushing worth all the way down to 65,800 by 04:00, flirting with the H4 minor help at 65,575. RSI on H1 dipped towards 40, signaling waning momentum, but no clear break. Why? Asian session psychology is all about risk-off positioning; establishments front-run the London open, however with out macro catalysts (no recent Fed information or ETF flows in a single day), it was simply stop-hunting liquidity grabs above the 200-period low.

London open at 08:00 modified every part. The session ignited with a flush beneath the PDL—worth sliced via 67,758 like a sizzling knife, hitting intraday lows close to 65,650 by 10:00. This wasn’t random; it was a textbook liquidity raid. Massive gamers swept the resting stops beneath Friday’s low, fueling a 1.2% drop in underneath two hours. The present day by day candle? A brooding bearish beast, already printing a wick-heavy doji-like construction with the physique firmly pink, excessive at 68,391 (PDH reclaim try failed), and low piercing prior helps. Quantity spiked 40% above Asian averages throughout London, confirming institutional promoting—possible Europeans de-risking forward of NY knowledge dumps.

Now, at 13:05, we’re within the London-NY candy spot (08:00-12:00 NY), the place 70% of day by day quantity materializes. Worth has stabilized at 65,756, hugging the H4 minor help at 65,575 like a lifeline. Psychology right here is electrical: bulls are determined for a bounce, whispering about “oversold dip-buy,” whereas bears scent blood, eyeing the foremost 200-period low at 59,807. This overlap is the place traps multiply—NY quants layer in algos, and retail FOMO piles on. We have seen this film earlier than: 2025’s March Monday mirrored it, with a fakeout pump to PDH earlier than cascading decrease. Pressing watch: if NY open (13:30 server) brings USD power (DXY teasing 105), anticipate extra ache. Session circulation screams warning—London drained the bulls, NY will determine the kill or the killswitch.

Deep Technical Breakdown

Diving into the charts, BTCUSD’s construction throughout timeframes reveals a powder keg: H4 bullish resilience clashing with H1 fragility and day by day bearishness. We’re not skimming headlines right here—that is granular, psychology-infused evaluation. Begin with the H1 (short-term): development is bullish versus SMA50. Why does SMA50 matter so profoundly? In trending markets like BTC’s medium-term updrift, the 50-period SMA acts as dynamic help—a psychological magnet the place patrons defend the “development line” etched by the previous 50 hours of worth motion. Worth is hovering simply above it (implied round 65,600 based mostly on present ranges), however the actual inform is RSI(14) at 44.0. Impartial territory, however in a bullish H1 context, this can be a divergence warning.

Clarify the RSI divergence: worth carved a decrease low beneath PDL (67,758 to 65,650), but H1 RSI refuses to plunge into oversold (<30). As a substitute, it is holding 44—a bullish divergence screaming “sellers exhausting.” Momentum oscillators like RSI measure velocity; when worth tanks however RSI flattens or curls up, it indicators hidden shopping for (accumulation). Psychologically, this traps bears shorting into help— they’ve front-run the breakdown, however good cash absorbs. Native resistance at 68,691 (PDH zone) looms because the fast upside check; break it, and H1 flips aggressively bullish.

Zoom to H4 (medium-term goldmine): bullish vs SMA50, RSI(14) at 54.6—prime neutral-positive for continuation. H4 is king for swing merchants as a result of it filters H1 noise, capturing the “true development” over 16-hour candles. SMA50 right here (possible ~65,400) is the struggle chest: worth bounced off it thrice final week, forming the next low construction. Why pressing? Present worth at 65,756 is a razor-thin 181 pips above minor help (65,575)—a 0.3% buffer. Breach it, and we probe the psychological 65,000 roundie earlier than main help at 59,807 (200-period low, etched in This autumn 2025 panic).

Main resistance at 91,570 (200-period excessive) is a distant dream, however minor 70,949 is the gateway—aligns with 1.618 Fib extension from latest swing low. Worth motion (PA) psychology: right now’s bearish day by day candle engulfs final week’s physique, a bearish engulfing sample trapping Friday longs. But H4 stays structurally greater highs/lows. Lure alert: false breakdown beneath 65,575 might wick-hunt to 65,000, then reverse—traditional bull entice in bull development. Day by day context amplifies: PDH 68,391 rejected twice right now, confirming overhead provide. Intermarket: BTC’s correlation to Nasdaq (0.85) means any tech selloff (hi there, NVDA earnings hangover?) crushes it right here. Backside line: H4 bullish bias holds, however divergence/RSI setup calls for respect—65,575 is the fulcrum.

Crucial Situations (The Roadmap)

Your if-then playbook for the following 24-48 hours. No fluff—exact triggers, targets, invalids. Commerce with urgency; markets do not wait.

Bullish Roadmap (Major Bias – 55% Chance):

• If worth holds >65,575 (H4 help) and closes H1 above SMA50 with RSI >50… Bulls awaken.
• Then: Goal 1: 68,691 (PDH/native res)—fast 430-pip scalp. Momentum builds to 70,949 (minor res, Fib cluster) for 1,200+ pips. Day by day candle flips inexperienced, reclaiming 68k psychology.
• Invalid: Shut beneath 65,575 on H4 (uncommon Monday reversal sign). Psychology: FOMO dip-buyers flood in throughout NY, sweeping shorts.
• Why? H4 bullish development + RSI divergence = greater low formation. Anticipate 2-3% bounce by EOD.

Bearish Roadmap (Secondary – 45% Chance, Excessive Impression):

• If decisive break <65,575 (H4 shut beneath) with quantity spike and day by day low growth…
• Then: Goal 1: 65,000 roundie (psych flush), then 59,807 (main help)—5,000+ pip cascade. Opens door to 55k macro low.
• Invalid: Reclaim above 67,758 PDL intra-hour. Day by day bear candle accelerates on macro risk-off.
• Why? Day by day engulfing + London momentum bleed = cease cascade. NY knowledge (ISM?) might ignite USD rally, crushing BTC.

Edge case: Consolidation chop between 65,575-67,758—look ahead to H4 shut. Roadmap rooted in construction: bulls want help maintain, bears want conviction break.

⚠️ Hazard Zones & Traps

⚠️ Lure #1: The Help Fakeout – Worth wicks beneath 65,575 to 65,400 (sweeping H1 stops), then snaps again above SMA50. Basic bull entice in H4 uptrend—bears cowl in panic, fueling 68k rip. Seen 7x in 2025. Keep away from: No entries on wick alone.

⚠️ Lure #2: PDH False Break – Pump to 68,391 throughout NY open (retail FOMO), rejection into trapdoor selloff. Day by day excessive provide zone loaded—algos fade it ruthlessly.

⚠️ Hazard Zone: 65,575-65,800 Buffer – Razor-thin; 0.3% transfer erases H4 bias. Liquidity void beneath invitations 200-pip stops.

⚠️ Psych Lure: Monday Blues – Submit-weekend de-risking ignores H4 power. Do not fade the day by day bear blindly—look ahead to affirmation.

⚠️ Macro Wildcard: Correlation Lure – BTC-Nasdaq sync means VIX spike tanks it. Watch SPX beneath 5,800.

Pressing: Scale out on traps—threat 0.5% per commerce max.

Key Ranges

Conclusion

BTCUSD at 65,756 is at a market-shaking inflection: H4 bullish fortress underneath siege by day by day bear artillery. RSI divergences whisper resilience, SMA50 guards the gate, however London-NY flows demand vigilance—65,575 is do-or-die. Bulls: defend help, goal PDH rip. Bears: break it, feast to 59k. Traps lurk in every single place; commerce the roadmap, not emotion. We’re glued to screens—this Monday might etch 2026’s first legend. Place good, threat tight—fortune favors the ready. Keep sharp.

Disclaimer: Not monetary recommendation. Commerce at personal threat. Knowledge as of 13:05 server time.