Australia’s February CPI cooled barely to three.7% y/y from 3.8%, with the month-to-month print coming in flat at 0.0%, only a contact softer than anticipated.
The trimmed imply rose 0.2% m/m, lacking the 0.3% forecast, whereas the annual tempo held at 3.3%.
This information got here out earlier than the U.S.-Iran war-driven vitality shock, holding inflation dangers tilted to the upside and the Aussie underneath stress.
Key Takeaways
- Headline CPI rose 3.7% within the 12 months to February, easing from 3.8% in January, with the month-to-month studying flat at 0.0%
- Trimmed imply inflation held regular at 3.3% yearly, unchanged from January
- The biggest annual contributors had been Housing (+7.2%), Meals and non-alcoholic drinks (+3.1%), and Recreation and tradition (+4.1%)
- Electrical energy surged 37.0% over the 12 months, primarily because of the expiry of Commonwealth and State Authorities vitality rebates
- Knowledge predates the Iran battle’s vitality shock; headline inflation is broadly anticipated to push towards 5% within the coming months
Hyperlink to official ABS Australian Shopper Value Index (February 2026)
Housing remained the largest annual driver, up 7.2%, with electrical energy costs surging 37.0% as authorities rebates rolled off. Automotive gas, in the meantime, fell 7.2% on the 12 months, nonetheless reflecting pre-Center East battle pricing.
The combo confirmed up within the broader breakdown. Companies inflation held at 3.9%, items eased to three.5%, whereas non-tradables ticked as much as 5.0%.
Even so, this snapshot could already be outdated. The report doesn’t but seize the current surge in vitality costs, with headline inflation anticipated to climb towards 5% within the coming months.
All these assist clarify the RBA’s stance. The central financial institution simply delivered its second straight fee hike, taking the money fee to 4.1%, with Governor Michele Bullock warning that inflation stays too excessive and flagging considerations about second-round results from rising vitality prices.
Promotion: Grasp your buying and selling psychology with AI-powered insights! TradeZella helps you monitor, backtest, and remove dangerous habits robotically! Click on on the hyperlink and use code “PIPS20” to avoid wasting 20%!
Disclosure: To assist help our free each day content material, we could earn a fee from our companions should you enroll by way of our hyperlinks, at no additional price to you.
Market Reactions
Australian Greenback vs. Main Currencies: 5-min
AUD Overlay 5-min – Chart Sooner with TradingView
The Australian greenback, which leaned barely bullish early within the day, briefly ticked greater after the sticky inflation print. Nevertheless, AUD turned decrease about quarter-hour later, then stayed on the again foot for roughly an hour and a half after the discharge.
AUD then settled into a spread earlier than choosing up some bids forward of the London open. Merchants largely regarded by way of the CPI because it predates the Iran battle, which is predicted to drive a pointy rise in gas costs within the March report. The vitality shock, not the February information, drove sentiment, with markets reluctant to carry AUD longs given the inflation dangers forward.
The Aussie is now again to a web bearish lean, with positive factors exhibiting up solely in opposition to the Swiss franc and the New Zealand greenback.
Promoted: Capitalize on Fed Volatility With out Risking Your Personal Funds.
Expectations of sticky excessive inflation and a excessive rate of interest atmosphere in Australia saved AUD on the defensive early Wednesday. When the macroeconomic information shifts this quick, buying and selling the volatility requires deep focus—and sufficient capital to make your edge depend.
You probably have the proper basic bias however a restrictive private account dimension, Funded Buying and selling Plus might help. They provide analysis packages beginning at simply $89.00. Show your abilities with easy, honest guidelines, and you’ll double your account each 10% as much as $2,500,000.
Study extra about Funded Buying and selling Plus! (for a restricted time, use code “20CHAL” for 20% off on 1-Step & 2-Step Challenges, As much as $100k account dimension)
Disclosure: To assist help our content material, we could earn a fee from our companions should you enroll by way of our hyperlinks, at no additional price to you.
