Being seen as dependable is nice for ‘enterprise’ and ransomware teams care about ‘model repute’ simply as a lot as their victims
11 Dec 2025
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4 min. learn
Black Hat Europe 2025 opened with a presentation by Max Smeets of Digital Rotes titled ‘Contained in the Ransomware Machine’. The speak centered on the LockBit ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) gang and Max’s analysis into their practices and operations. At their peak, between 2022-2024, the group had 194 associates, of which 110 had managed to get a cyberattack to the purpose of negotiation, with 80 of the associates succeeding in getting paid by the ransomware group. (As a reminder, the enterprise mannequin of ransomware is layered: ‘affiliate’ refers back to the workforce that researches the sufferer’s networks and identifies and exfiltrates the delicate knowledge to a ransomware gang, akin to LockBit.)
Popularity is the whole lot
A key message delivered by Max was concerning repute, each of the sufferer and the ransomware group. The sufferer firm must uphold their repute with their clients and any trace of an information breach can considerably harm it. Apparently, the analysis confirmed that media protection is larger for the businesses that pay as opposed to those who don’t pay the extortion demand and face longer disruption. The presenter’s view is that the information story turns into in regards to the fee and doubtlessly provides the indication the sufferer firm has misplaced management and wanted to pay, producing mistrust and harm to their model.
As somebody who has been near the topic for a number of years, I disagree with this view, not less than in some instances. From a purely monetary perspective, paying the demand may very well be the cheaper resolution, and there are various examples the place the ultimate prices of a cyber-incident for people who don’t pay are a number of occasions larger than people who do pay – simply suppose again to the assaults on Caesers Palace and MGM. Corporations have a duty to shareholders and in some instances the best and quickest technique to get better the enterprise and change into absolutely operational could also be to pay the ransomware extortion demand.
In the meantime, restoration of methods could be advanced, new {hardware} must be acquired, and backups must be restored and analyzed to make sure they’re clear. The ransomware decryption key unlocking the enterprise in hours fairly than days can decrease enterprise disruption and lack of income. Then additionally issue within the affect of an insurance coverage underwriter, who too will need to decrease their prices and take the trail that minimizes any declare that could be made by the sufferer firm.
In fact, each rapid and long-term downsides are simply as apparent. The fee could purchase time and lower the invoice – till it does not. For starters, there isn’t any assure that the decryption key will really unlock the info. As well as, the victims that conform to ransom calls for could also be seen by attackers as price concentrating on once more and, in the end, they could additionally inadvertently validate and reinforce ransomware as a viable ‘enterprise mannequin’.
The ransomware operators are additionally involved about repute – they must be seen as reliable and to be identified for upholding their finish of any deal. When enormous quantities of delicate knowledge is exfiltrated and held to ransom, in addition to inside methods encrypted and acquired to a standstill, any negotiation to unlock methods and make sure the safety of the info must be from a belief standpoint.
If the negotiator has heard destructive opinions on the ransomware group not offering decryptors or holding onto knowledge, they could advise the sufferer to not pay. It’s necessary that when handing over the extortion fee the ransomware group delivers precisely as anticipated, offering the service they’re being paid for in knowledgeable method. The actual problem for any ransomware group isn’t that of community entry or the exfiltration of information however fairly whether or not the sufferer trusts them sufficient to pay the extortion demand.
Apparently, the operations by legislation enforcement to take down LockBit in 2024 additionally included a marketing campaign to destroy belief within the gang, publicly stating that the gang goes not delete exfiltrated knowledge however maintain on to it. This mistrust marketing campaign may very well be sufficient for associates to take their alternatives and enterprise to a different group.
What units the worth
My takeaway from the presentation was not one thing the presenter said outright – it’s in regards to the knowledge and reconnaissance the affiliate conducts in regards to the firm. There was a quick point out of the analysis and shifting round an organization community in search of delicate knowledge, together with monetary knowledge that will point out willingness to pay or an quantity that may be acceptable.
This induced a lightbulb second: essentially the most useful doc to a cybercriminal may very well be the schedule detailing the corporate’s cyber insurance coverage protection. Understanding whether or not the corporate has insurance coverage that features paying an extortion demand and what the extent of protection is supplies the cybercriminal the knowledge on the place to set the extortion demand, in order that the danger turns into a monetary situation not for the corporate, however for the insurer.
The takeaway is that the cyber insurance coverage coverage and all communication concerning the coverage needs to be segmented with further safety, or fully air-gapped from the corporate community.
