Morgan Stanley’s determination to file for spot Bitcoin and Solana ETFs caught even seasoned ETF watchers off guard and in Jeff Park’s telling, it’s a stronger sign about crypto’s subsequent leg of adoption than one other spherical of flows into the prevailing market leaders.
The shock wasn’t merely {that a} main wirehouse desires in. It was the branding and the timing. Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart stated he “didn’t see this coming,” amplifying Eric Balchunas’ “SHOCKER” response to the filings. Seyffart then pointed to Matt Hougan’s framing of what made it uncommon: “Morgan Stanley manages 20 ETFs, however principally below the Calvert/Parametric/Eaton Vance manufacturers. These would be the third and 4th ETFs to bear the ‘Morgan Stanley’ model. Fairly outstanding.”
Park, the pinnacle of alpha methods at Bitwise and ProCap CIO, argues the late-cycle entry is exactly why the submitting issues. “It’s unprecedented for a vanilla ETF product to launch two years after the primary to market has already secured the liquidity throne,” he wrote. “IAU famously tried a 12 months later, and by no means caught up.” Park’s level was that Morgan Stanley wouldn’t make that wager except inner channels have been flashing one thing the broader market nonetheless underestimates.
Why This Is ‘The Most Bullish Factor’ For Bitcoin
Park framed the submitting as a complete addressable market story, not a product story. “It means the market is MUCH greater than even crypto professionals anticipated, particularly to achieve NEW clients,” he stated.
“This indicators that regardless of IBIT being the quickest ETF in historical past to achieve $80Bn in AUM (roughly 1/fifth the time it took for second place VOO), there may be sufficient untapped curiosity as viably researched and ascertained by means of MS’ proprietary wealth channels that they’re keen to wager {that a} branded product has industrial viability.” He completed that thought with the sort of line that reads like a thesis assertion for 2026: “It means we’re nonetheless so early.”
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The “why now” additionally suits with Seyffart’s longer-running view that institutional platforms would ultimately shift. “I’ve been saying for literal years that the majority of those corporations will change their tune on crypto,” he wrote. “However it actually was only a couple months in the past that Morgan Stanley advisors have been barred from shopping for crypto ETFs for his or her purchasers.” In different phrases: the timeline is compressing, and the posture is shifting from cautious entry to product possession.
Park’s second argument is that Morgan Stanley is treating Bitcoin as an id product as a lot as an allocation sleeve. “It signifies that Bitcoin is ‘socially’ vital simply as a lot as it’s ‘financially’ vital as a product to supply to clients,” he wrote.
“Think about the truth that for being ‘digital gold’ there are nearly no branded gold ETFs in existence, but for Bitcoin there may be.” In his view, that distinction is the inform: a house-branded Bitcoin ETF isn’t solely about publicity, it’s about what the agency indicators to purchasers and recruits by having it in any respect.
Park argued the branding capabilities as a credibility marker with a selected viewers in thoughts. “It’s because each asset supervisor is aware of that having a Bitcoin ETF communicates that they’re ahead considering, younger, and a bit of edgy that permits concentrating on probably the most difficult investor cohort that everybody desires to achieve: UHNW Impartial Traders,” he stated.“
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Morgan Stanley is making the wager that even when their ETF doesn’t scale to blockbuster success, there’s an intangible profit that can assist construct their clout.”
The third pillar is defensive: platform economics. “It’s on the core a defensive transfer in opposition to platform disintermediation and payment leakage,” Park wrote. “By launching their very own BTC ETF after IBIT already consolidated liquidity, Morgan Stanley is implicitly acknowledging a tough reality: DISTRIBUTION owns the shopper, not product superiority.”
He added why that issues strategically: “They aren’t going to let advisors default to 3rd events by outsourcing the financial lease. That’s why at first look whereas this launch appears irrational by means of a pure AUM lens, additionally completely inevitable by means of a PLATFORM ECONOMICS lens.”
That logic additionally surfaced in Seyffart’s change with James Van Straten, who requested why anybody could be stunned if a agency has “personal distribution” and “big demand from purchasers.” Seyffart’s reply didn’t dispute demand; it underscored that Morgan Stanley traditionally “doesn’t do a ton of ETF launches,” and that the choice to take action right here is itself informative, even when, as he put it, “there’s loads of demand” for a lot of merchandise that platforms by no means hassle to fabricate.
On timing, Seyffart stated approval is “at the very least 75 days from now,” emphasizing that 75 days might be the quickest potential path below present processes, but in addition that “there’s loads of merchandise that don’t launch proper at 75 days.”
At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,256.
Featured picture created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
