Key takeaways:
BTC’s 700% rally from $15,500 to $124,500 suggests a market prime in 2 to three months, primarily based on previous cycles.
Bitcoin provide in revenue has been elevated for 273 days, signaling a possible cycle peak quickly.
Bitcoin dangers dropping into the $90,000-$100,000 vary if the psychological assist at $110,000 is misplaced.
Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to reclaim $114,000 on Thursday, as a convergence of onchain metrics indicators waning bullish momentum and a traditional setup for a market late in its cycle.
The Bitcoin market is nearing a cycle prime
Bitcoin has had an unimaginable efficiency over the past three years, rising as a lot as 700% to an all-time excessive of $124,500 final week from a cycle low of $15,500 reached in November 2022.
In comparison with previous cycles, this efficiency means that BTC value is roughly two to 3 months away from the cycle prime, in line with market intelligence agency Glassnode.
Associated: Bitcoin analysts level to ‘manipulation’ as BTC value falls to 17-day low
In its newest Week On-chain report, Glassnode stated:
“In each the 2015–2018 and 2018–2022 cycles, the all-time highs had been reached roughly 2–3 months past the place we’re within the present cycle, by relative timing.”
As of Aug. 21, roughly 91% of all Bitcoin had been in revenue, and have remained above the +1 commonplace deviation band for greater than 273 days within the present cycle, as proven within the chart beneath. This makes it the second-longest on document, behind the 2015–2018 cycle at 335 days.
This means that the current cycle has delivered a comparable period to that which has preceded cycle tops in prior cycles.
When thought of towards the backdrop of the waves of onchain profit-taking over the previous two years, the information reveals a similarity to earlier cycle tops
Analyzing the cumulative revenue realized (in BTC phrases) by long-term holders (LTHs) — traders who’ve held Bitcoin for no less than 155 days — from the purpose of reaching a brand new cycle all-time excessive, till the ultimate peak of the cycle, revealed that LTHs have realized extra revenue than in prior cycles.
Such heightened ranges of profit-taking by LTHs, corresponding to previous euphoric phases, add “one other dimension by the lens of sell-side strain,” Glassnode defined, including:
“Taken collectively, these indicators reinforce the view that the present cycle is firmly in its traditionally late part.”
Well-liked crypto analyst Rekt Capital stated that if Bitcoin goes to peak in its bull market primarily based on historic halving cycles, that might be in mid-September/mid-October 2025.
“That’s solely 1-2 months away.”
Bitcoin value rejected at $114,000
On Wednesday, Bitcoin bounced strongly from the $112,000 assist degree, however the value was rejected at $114,000, strengthening the case for additional draw back.
This degree “must be convincingly misplaced for BTC to go decrease,” stated analyst Rekt Capital in an X put up, including:
“A weekly shut relative to $114K will even be key.”
Under it, the $112,000–$110,000 area stays untested within the newest drawdown, aligning with the 100-day easy transferring common.
If Bitcoin faces deeper pullbacks, this zone may function a “nice purchase alternative,” in line with MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe.
Traditional value motion on #Bitcoin.
This outcomes right into a case that we could not break by the primary resistance level and that we’re remaining risky.
It stays the very fact: if the markets are dropping south of that earlier low –> nice purchase alternative. pic.twitter.com/7BmbrS47RE
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) August 21, 2025
For now, bulls are required to aggressively defend the $110,000 to $112,000 zone, to keep away from a return into the $100,000 to $90,000 vary, in line with Daan Crypto Trades.
“Something decrease and I believe the construction goes to be wanting a bit weak.”
This text doesn’t comprise funding recommendation or suggestions. Each funding and buying and selling transfer includes danger, and readers ought to conduct their very own analysis when making a call.
