Fittingly for Iran, the information that Mojtaba Khamenei, the final word theocratic nepo child, would be the new supreme chief will be described as each anticipated and weird. The 56-year-old has lengthy been touted as a doable successor to his father, the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. I first heard the rumor greater than a decade in the past from conspiracy-minded cab drivers in Tehran. Now Iranian actuality has proven itself to be as unusual as any conspiracy principle.
What makes the appointment baffling is Mojtaba’s whole lack of public profile, not to mention the spiritual {qualifications} that when underpinned the concept of clerical management as God’s vice-regency on Earth. A nation of 90 million is now going to be led by a person who has by no means given a single public interview or speech. His solely identified audio message is a 2024 announcement that he was, with out rationalization, placing an finish to his courses on the Qom Seminary, the place he had taught since 2009. Earlier than instructing at Qom, he studied there, having began his clerical profession comparatively late, in 1999, on the age of 30. Even the biographies now swiftly being printed by the regime don’t listing every other jobs for him. They declare that he speaks English and Arabic.
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Being his father’s son has apparently been Mojtaba’s entire life. The Islamist revolutionaries of 1979 might need introduced down centuries of monarchical rule, however all the foundation of their Shiite religion is the hereditary succession of spiritual management (the Shiites’ progenitors broke from Sunnis within the seventh century as a result of the Sunnis believed that the neighborhood’s leaders needs to be chosen by the elders, whereas Shiites selected to comply with the descendents of the Prophet Mohammad.) Sons of clerics have typically performed necessary roles in operating their father’s family, however Mojtaba used his standing to construct ties with the nation’s safety forces. One place the place his identify has all the time appeared is within the complaints of many losers of the regime’s inside fights: The previous speaker of the Parliament Mehdi Karroubi, former Deputy Inside Minister Mostafa Tajzadeh, and the previous head of the state broadcaster Mohammad Sarafraz have all publicly attested to Mojtaba’s outsize affect over the safety forces’ dealing with of the instances in opposition to them.
Lately, Mojtaba has slipped out from the shadows, and a few within the institution overtly promoted him as a possible supreme chief. Figuring out full nicely the will of Iranian society for change, some tried promoting him as a modernizer, relatively like the favored crown prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman: “MBS for Iran.” Final yr, the reformist daughter of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani Faezeh Hashemi endorsed this risk and backed Mojtaba for succession. Since Mojtaba’s choice as supreme chief was introduced yesterday, different supporters have pressed the narrative of clerical scion as agent of change. An influential Iranian journalist claimed that Mojtaba’s rule shall be “centered round nationalism” (which, within the theocratic regime, is code for de-emphasizing Islamism) and can result in “modifications in governance.”
Such hopes are exhausting to sq. with Mojtaba’s affiliation with repression. Within the week after his father’s killing, the battle traces within the Iranian political class have been clear: Most anti-Western hard-liners lobbied for Mojtaba, and the extra pragmatic figures, equivalent to the previous President Hassan Rouhani, unsuccessfully pushed for the Meeting of Consultants to delay selecting a brand new chief till the battle with america and Israel is over.
Now that Mojtaba Khamenei is formally chosen, regime our bodies are displaying exceptional cohesion and have shortly swung their help to him. However this doesn’t preclude factional infighting, which has been a function of the Islamic Republic for many years and has manifested between the traces in messages of congratulation to the brand new chief. A prime adviser to President Masoud Pezeshkian wished Mojtaba success however requested him to hunt counsel from others, together with his rival Rouhani. Ali Larijani, the nation’s prime nationwide safety adviser, expressed the want that below Mojtaba Iran may “go on the trail of growth, for financial situations to change into higher and for individuals to seek out prosperity and calm.” In regime-speak, growth and prosperity and calm are codes for avoiding hard-line anti-Westernism.
Mojtaba’s most enthusiastic backer seems to be Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the speaker of Parliament and a significant pressure within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the militia that controls a lot of Iran’s financial system, politics, and safety. In his message, Qalibaf emphasised that he noticed no distinction between Mojtaba and his two predecessors as supreme chief, Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Khamenei. However he additionally claimed that the brand new chief is a “modernizer.”
If Khamenei Jr. is to step out of the shadows and efficiently run a rustic that’s presently at battle with Israel and america, he might want to overcome three obstacles. Considered one of these is the zero-sum scramble of Iranian politics. Qalibaf and others within the IRGC might nicely think about that the younger Khamenei, who’s presently nursing battle accidents, shall be a weak chief who will permit actual energy to stay of their palms. The system of collective management that has successfully run Iran since final yr may restrict his attain, as may his lack of expertise and gravitas in an ecosystem the place regime factions compete for authority over the nation’s route. However then, Khamenei Sr., too, got here into the workplace on the sufferance of extra highly effective figures, together with Rafsanjani, who had imagined he can be weak and malleable. The almost absolute energy afforded to his place—and which Ali Khamenei expanded and militarized over the course of his rule—gave the deceive such expectations and will simply achieve this once more.
Mojtaba Khamenei faces a second and much more existential impediment, which is the American and Israeli battle that’s now engulfing the area. Altering Iran’s management is a acknowledged purpose of each america and Israel. The Israeli protection minister has overtly pledged that his nation will work to kill any new supreme chief, and Donald Trump expressed explicit dissatisfaction with the opportunity of Mojtaba’s choice even earlier than it was made official. The U.S. and Israel may goal the brand new chief personally—or simply proceed hitting Iran in hope of getting their desired change. Even when they have been to finish the battle tomorrow, Iran can be left smoldering, its financial system tanking, and surrounded by indignant and anxious Arab neighbors.
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Lastly, Mojtaba must deal with the beleaguered inhabitants of Iran, which has come out in wave after wave of protests in opposition to the Islamic Republic. From 1989 to final Saturday, Iranians had been led by one man who degraded their nation and introduced it to battle. For him to now be adopted by his undistinguished son is a slap within the face. New protests could also be a while in coming, however Mojtaba will face critical Iranian discontent that this dynastic succession will solely inflame.
Khamenei’s father overcame the same slate of obstacles to stay in energy for 37 years via extreme home repression and redoubled anti-American and anti-Israel ideology. Collectively, these introduced Iran to the worst place it’s been in 100 years. Mojtaba can’t stabilize the Islamic Republic, not to mention modernize it, with out correcting this course.
Orderly succession, even in an autocracy, doesn’t all the time imply lasting regime continuity. Joseph Stalin’s demise, in 1953, initially didn’t appear to change the course of the Soviet Union, however inside three years, Nikita Khrushchev denounced his predecessor and altered tack. When Mao Zedong died, in 1976, his successor as China’s paramount chief, Hua Guofeng, dominated as an uninspiring Maoist, following a lot of the Nice Helmsman’s insurance policies. However inside a few years, he discovered himself sidelined by the reformer Deng Xiaoping, who jettisoned a lot of Mao’s legacy and took a swift pro-capitalist flip. Khamenei Jr. would possibly but show to be his nation’s Hua: a footnote in Iran’s lengthy historical past.
