Editor’s notice, February 28, 2026, 12:05 pm ET: This text was initially revealed on February 19, within the lead-up to conflict in Iran and up to date on February 28 after airstrikes had begun.
President Donald Trump introduced early Saturday morning that the US and Israel had launched an assault on Iran, saying the aim was to remove an “imminent menace” from Iran, “raze their missile business to the bottom” and “annihilate their navy,” and for Iranians to overthrow their authorities.
The strikes started on Saturday morning, Tehran time, and gave the impression to be aimed toward regime management targets, together with the workplaces and residences of senior officers — and presumably together with Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
In response, Iran has launched a wave of retaliatory missile towards US and Israeli targets within the area, in addition to US allies together with Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
The bombing comes after weeks of buildup within the area, and all indications earlier than the strikes urged it is going to be a bigger and extra intensive marketing campaign than what we noticed final summer time — or than most Individuals had been most likely ready for. And in the meanwhile, each side appear dangerously assured they’ll prevail.
Listed below are a number of key questions in regards to the operation to bear in mind for the times forward:
What has the US army been as much as within the Center East?
Trump first threatened new army motion towards Iran in January, promising “assistance is on the best way” when protests over financial circumstances broke out all through the nation and had been brutally repressed by Iran’s theocratic regime. Trump finally held off on the time on the urging of regional allies, in addition to a few of his personal advisers, when it turned clear that the US army — on the time engaged in main operations round Venezuela — didn’t have enough property within the area to discourage Iranian counterattacks.
That’s not the case. The United States deployed two plane service strike teams to the area, every with three destroyer escorts, in addition to half a dozen different floor ships and — nearly actually — nuclear submarines whose places aren’t disclosed. Dozens of plane, together with F-22 and F-16 fighters jets and surveillance planes had been deployed across the Center East as effectively — the best focus of airpower within the area for the reason that buildup to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US has additionally labored to replenish air protection batteries that had been depleted by Iranian missile and drone strikes throughout June’s “12-day conflict.”
Briefly, analysts counsel that is sufficient firepower for an engagement lasting a number of weeks, not only a few hours or days.
Why is that this taking place? What does America need from Iran?
That is one thing of a shifting goal. Trump’s menace to Iran in January was in response to the bloodbath of protesters. However the protests largely subsided, and it’s too late to rescue the 1000’s who had been massacred. Nonetheless, Trump on Saturday referred to as for Iranians to “take over your authorities,” successfully calling for a brand new mass rebellion together with the airstrikes.
However the primary discussions earlier than the assault involved Iran’s nuclear program. Although this program was severely degraded by US airstrikes in June (Trump proclaimed it “obliterated”), the Trump administration is looking for Iran to desert nuclear enrichment solely, the method that can be utilized to create materials for weapons. Iran, which maintains that its nuclear program is peaceable, is insisting on its proper to counterpoint, although it has indicated a willingness to make some concessions, similar to diluting its inventory of close to weapons-grade enriched uranium.
Within the week main as much as the airstrikes, the administration additionally put ahead a number of extra particular claims. One was that Iran was, within the phrases of US Envoy to the Center East Steve Witkoff, simply “per week away” from having sufficient weapons-grade uranium to construct a bomb. This can be a reference to Iran’s stockpile of extremely enriched uranium — presently unaccounted for — which is only a brief technical step away from weapons grade, although Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was badly broken final summer time and most consultants don’t consider it’s really presently working to weaponize it.
There have been reviews within the days main up to the strikes that Iran is likely to be keen to dilute this materials in alternate for sanctions aid, even perhaps past the degrees that had been required within the 2015 nuclear deal, however this evidently wasn’t sufficient to persuade Trump that it was price persevering with to barter.
The US additionally sought to increase the talks to embody points together with Iran’s ballistic missile program and its assist for regional proxy teams like Hezbollah and the Houthis. Iran has been extraordinarily proof against this. For all of the concentrate on nuclear weapons, Iran’s ballistic missiles could find yourself being the crux of this disaster: They’re a specific concern for Israel, which is in vary of them. However Iran additionally views them as a core part of its means to defend itself.
Trump additionally claimed in his latest State of the Union tackle that Iran was “working to construct missiles that may quickly attain america of America,” however US intelligence businesses consider it’s years away from such a functionality.
There have been reviews within the lead-up to Saturday’s operation that the preliminary aim of strikes is likely to be to strain Iran into making concessions — on its nuclear program, missiles, and maybe different points as effectively. However Trump’s latest rhetoric suggests america seeks to not make a cope with the Islamic Republic, however to remove it. Trump stated earlier this month that regime change in Iran is “the very best factor that would occur.” Many Iranians would absolutely agree, although Trump didn’t elaborate on what he envisioned changing the regime in the event that they had been to comply with by way of on his name to overthrow it.
What would the conflict seem like?
Individuals could assume that conflict will look one thing like June’s “Operation Midnight Hammer,” a comparatively transient sequence of strikes that was resolved rapidly. That doesn’t seem like the case.
The June conflict was a primarily Israeli operation, with the US becoming a member of in to assault three Iranian nuclear amenities per week in, when it was already clear that the Israelis had been having army success and Iran’s retaliation was restricted.
This time round, america is within the driver’s seat from the beginning, although Israel is concerned. And reporting suggests the administration has a extra intensive operation in thoughts.
In accordance with the Wall Road Journal, the choices Trump was introduced with by army briefers included a “marketing campaign to kill scores of Iranian political and army leaders, with the aim of overthrowing the federal government…in addition to an air assault that will be restricted to hanging targets together with nuclear and ballistic-missile amenities.” Each forms of campaigns might doubtlessly final for weeks. After all, the truth might effectively prove fairly completely different: Forward of the US intervention in Venezuela, few predicted that america would merely seize the nation’s president whereas leaving most of its regime in place. Trump has proven a willingness prior to now, as within the airstrikes towards Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels final 12 months, to stroll away from army campaigns with restricted wins even when underlying points are left unresolved.
In June, Iranian retaliation towards US forces within the Center East was restricted and telegraphed upfront. That is probably not the case this time, as Iran’s leaders could really feel they’re in an existential struggle for survival that requires a stronger response, and all indications to date counsel the Iranians had been rather more ready to retaliate and have a a lot larger tolerance for threat.
Although its nuclear program could also be in shambles, the regime has labored diligently since final summer time to reconstitute its ballistic missile deterrent. How a lot harm it’s actually able to inflicting is an open query, although Israel was reportedly working dangerously low on interceptors by the tip of the 12-day conflict and should have sustained extra casualties if the battle had lasted longer. Iran performed workouts in latest weeks that briefly shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil chokepoint by way of which 31 p.c of the world’s sea-born crude flows.
Trump has clearly grown extra assured about utilizing army power, however Iran’s calculation could also be that he has little tolerance for a protracted, drawn-out, messy battle. In Trump’s greater than 5 years as president, one factor we have now not but seen is how he would reply to a battle with a vital variety of US casualties. It’s notable in that context that Trump explicitly warned the general public on Saturday that “the lives of brave American heroes could also be misplaced, and we could have casualties.”
What do different nations assume?
Although the Israeli authorities was reportedly involved in January in regards to the state of their air defenses, they had been a participant within the assaults early Saturday. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, deeply unpopular heading into elections later this 12 months, would little question a lot quite hold the general public targeted on the destruction of Iran’s nuclear and missile packages than the swirling questions about his dealing with of the October 7 assaults.
As for different regional nations, the image is extra blended. Through the Obama administration and Trump’s first time period, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and different Gulf states pushed for a maximally hawkish place on Iran. Immediately, whereas they’d little question favor an finish to the Islamic Republic, they’re much less passionate about conflict, resulting from issues about Iranian retaliation in addition to the regional destabilization that would outcome from a collapse of the Iranian regime. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have stated they won’t permit america to make use of their airspace for an assault on Iran, although it doesn’t appear to have spared the UAE from Iranian retaliation.
The UK had reportedly sought to stop the US from utilizing its airbases for an assault on Iran, together with the strategically positioned base at Diego Garcia within the Indian Ocean, prompting an indignant outburst from Trump early this week.
To this point, the European allies appear tentatively supportive, with a joint assertion from leaders of the UK, France and Germany that places the blame for the battle on Iran whereas additionally calling for the resumption of negotiations. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who has clashed with Trump over commerce and overseas coverage prior to now, additionally endorsed the strikes.
As for Iran’s few allies, it performed joint naval drills with Russia’s army in February and was reportedly nearing completion of a deal to purchase supersonic anti-ship missiles from China, but it surely’s exhausting to think about both Moscow or Beijing doing a lot to come back to Tehran’s support now that conflict has begun.
The administration didn’t ask Congress for an authorization to make use of army power towards Iran, or current an in depth authorized rationale for doing so. On condition that Iran’s nuclear program is, in response to the administration’s personal assessments, nowhere near producing a weapon, and provided that america shouldn’t be in vary of Iranian missiles, it could be exhausting to make the case that it constitutes the kind of imminent menace that will permit the president to order army motion with out congressional authorization.
Previous administrations, together with Trump’s after Midnight Hammer, have argued that army operations which might be restricted in scope and length don’t represent “conflict” within the constitutional sense and don’t require authorization. Many authorized students don’t purchase that, however even should you do, it could get more durable to justify it if the conflict seems to be the sort of expansive operation reportedly below dialogue.
In Congress, after a number of weeks of delay, Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Thomas Massie (R-KY) are planning to transfer subsequent week to power a vote on a decision that will require the administration to hunt congressional authorization, however earlier efforts to do that below the Trump administration haven’t been profitable. In all probability, congressional oversight of Trump’s means to wage conflict is about to be additional watered down.
In equity to Trump, in every of his earlier army engagements, courting again to the strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his first time period, he has been capable of defy critics who warned he was risking a harmful quagmire. But when he’s actually considering an operation as intensive as what has been reported or pursuing the overthrow of the Iranian state itself, this implies he could also be rising assured to the purpose he’s contemplating simply the form of conflict he has lambasted earlier presidents for getting concerned with.
Either side appeared dangerously assured about their prospects heading right into a battle: The US in its means to inflict harm on Iran at will with out vital blowback; Iran in its means to make the battle so painful for america that it may well inflict a strategic defeat quite than hastening its personal demise after a 12 months that has left it severely weakened, economically, politically, and militarily.
The boldness on each side could find yourself getting lots of people killed.
