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After months of a crippling oil blockade on Cuba imposed by the US, the fuel-starved nation might now see some aid after the US authorities mentioned it will start authorising firms to resell Venezuelan oil, at the same time as tensions between the 2 attain a head.

On Wednesday, the US Division of the Treasury mentioned it will enable the resale of Venezuelan oil for “business and humanitarian use” in Cuba because the small island nation faces one in all its worst gas crises in many years.

Venezuela is the most important supplier of oil to Cuba. Nonetheless, since US forces kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January and imprisoned him to face medication and weapons costs in a New York courtroom, the Donald Trump administration has taken management of Caracas’s oil and halted exports to Havana.

Washington has lengthy had frosty relations with Cuba, however Trump’s administration is particularly looking for regime change there by the tip of 2026, US media has reported.

The US’s coverage shift this week, nevertheless, comes after Caribbean leaders sounded the alarm concerning the dire state of affairs in Cuba, an island nation of 10.9 million folks.

At a regional assembly of Caribbean Group (CARICOM) international locations on Wednesday, attended by US Secretary of State and Cuban-American Marco Rubio, Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness referred to as on Washington to ease the strain.

“At this time, many Cubans are going through critical financial hardship, vitality shortages, and rising humanitarian challenges,” Holness mentioned. Cuba isn’t a CARICOM member however shares shut ties.

“We’re delicate to their struggles. However we should additionally recognise {that a} extended disaster in Cuba won’t stay there. It may possibly affect migration, safety and financial stability throughout the Caribbean, together with Jamaica,” he added.

What’s the state of affairs in Cuba now?

Cuba’s state-dominated economic system was already struggling underneath a US embargo which has been in place since 1962, relationship again to Havana’s alliance with the Soviet Union in the course of the Chilly Conflict.

Since then, sanctions on Cuba have eased and tightened underneath varied US administrations.

The long-running sanctions have severely weakened Cuba, inflicting the nation to change into extremely depending on imports, and excessive inflation routinely results in meals and vitality shortages. Mass emigration of Cuba’s expert labour pressure, notably in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, has added to the nation’s difficulties.

With Trump’s newest oil embargo, the US has added a extreme vitality disaster to the combination. Widespread energy blackouts of as much as 20 hours at a time are actually being reported throughout Cuba, impacting hospitals, companies and households alike.

Surgical procedures have been suspended, faculties have cancelled courses, and waste vehicles are parked as garbage piles up within the streets.

4 United Nations particular rapporteurs warned in early February that the state of affairs is contributing to a extreme public well being downside within the nation and mentioned it may result in a “extreme humanitarian” disaster.

Cuba has misplaced 90 p.c of its gas provide, and regardless of shutting seashore resorts and proscribing aviation gas gross sales, the nation may expertise a complete blackout as early as late February, based on Ignacio Seni, a danger analyst writing for the US-based intelligence agency Disaster 24.

Why has the US  blocked oil deliveries to Cuba?

Cuba produces crude oil however doesn’t have the capability to refine sufficient to fulfill home demand.

Venezuela was offering as a lot as 50 p.c of Cuba’s oil earlier than the US authorities took management of its oil trade in the beginning of this 12 months, about 35,000 barrels per day.

Below a particular barter settlement in place since 2000, Cuba supplies assist for training, healthcare, and safety companies in return for discounted Venezuelan gas. Certainly, about 30 members of Maduro’s safety element who have been killed within the operation to abduct him in January have been from Cuba.

Then, days after Maduro was kidnapped, Trump turned his purpose at Cuba itself, warning Havana to “make a deal earlier than it’s too late”. He didn’t, nevertheless, give particulars about what kind of deal he wished.

On January 29, Trump issued an govt order imposing new commerce tariffs on any international locations promoting oil to Cuba due to what he referred to as the “insurance policies, practices and actions” of the Cuban authorities, which, he mentioned, pose an “extraordinary menace” to the US.

Trump additionally claimed, with out proof, that Havana funds “terrorism”.

In addition to Venezuela, Cuba was additionally sourcing oil from Mexico, Russia and Algeria, however all oil imports into the nation ceased. Trump’s order, subsequently, successfully amounted to a blockade.

The US has additionally reportedly seized gas tankers in open waters transferring oil to Cuba, based on a New York Instances investigation into ship actions within the Caribbean Sea revealed final week.

The US started increase its naval presence within the space in September final 12 months because it ready to assault Maduro, and its troops proceed to patrol the waters.

In mid-February, one tanker loaded with Colombian oil was intercepted by the US Coast Guard because it got here inside 70 miles of Cuba, the Instances reported. The automobile, referred to as the Ocean Mariner, was beforehand used to covertly transport oil between Venezuela and Iran.

Earlier than Maduro’s seize, US forces additionally struck a number of Venezuelan boats within the jap Pacific and Caribbean that the US claimed – with out proof – have been trafficking medication.

How have Cuba and others reacted to the US blockade?

Cuban authorities underneath President Miguel Diaz-Canel have accused the US of imposing collective punishment on the nation.

On Wednesday, it additionally accused the US of hyperlinks to armed males who entered the nation’s waters on a Florida-tagged speedboat. 4 People of Cuban origin have been killed within the altercation, and two have been injured.

Previously, Havana has mentioned it’s open to “reciprocal dialogue” with Washington, however Diaz-Canel has additionally mentioned Cubans will “defend the Homeland to the final drop of blood”.

In the meantime, on February 12, a UN professional panel condemned the US’s directive as unlawful and mentioned the declare that Havana funds terrorism “lacks credibility and seems designed to justify the usage of extraordinary and coercive powers”.

“It’s an excessive type of unilateral financial coercion with extraterritorial results, by way of which the US seeks to exert coercion on the sovereign state of Cuba and compel different sovereign third States to change their lawful business relations,” the panel mentioned.

Different international locations try to assist. Mexico has despatched two deployments of humanitarian support to Havana between mid-February and this week, whereas Russia has floated the opportunity of sending gas to Cuba.

On Wednesday, Canada pledged meals support with 8 million Canadian {dollars} ($6.7m).

What aid has the US introduced now, and can it change something?

Washington mentioned on Wednesday it will subject firms with particular licences to resell Venezuelan oil to Cuba “in solidarity” with the Cuban folks.

That got here after Washington introduced $6m in humanitarian support to Cuba to be distributed by the Catholic Church in early February.

Nonetheless, “individuals or entities related to the Cuban navy, intelligence companies, or different authorities establishments” can be barred from acquiring oil gross sales licences, the US Treasury Division mentioned this week.

Transactions ought to solely assist “exports for business and humanitarian use”, the assertion added.

It’s unclear if the brand new order will enable Havana to proceed shopping for Venezuelan oil at a closely subsidised charge because it was beforehand doing. If it doesn’t, the state of affairs might not ease considerably for Cuba, consultants say.

“With out important oil imports or a relenting of US strain, Cuba’s economic system is unlikely to get well, and the degradation of situations is prone to speed up,” Seni, the Disaster 24 danger analyst, wrote.