For many years, the “different homeland” – the notion that Jordan ought to turn into the Palestinian state – was dismissed in Amman’s diplomatic circles as a distant nightmare or a conspiracy principle.
In the present day, underneath the shadow of a far-right Israeli authorities and a devastating genocidal struggle in Gaza, that nightmare has turn into an operational actuality.
The alarm within the Hashemite Kingdom reached a fever pitch on Sunday, following the Israeli cupboard’s approval of measures to register huge swaths of the occupied West Financial institution as “state land” underneath the Israeli Ministry of Justice. The transfer, described by Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich as a “settlement revolution”, successfully bypasses the navy administration that has ruled the occupied territory since 1967, treating it as an alternative as sovereign Israeli soil.
For Jordan, this bureaucratic annexation is the ultimate sign that the established order is lifeless. With the Israeli navy’s “Iron Wall” operation crushing refugee camps in Jenin and Tulkarem, Jordan’s political and navy institution is now not asking if a compelled switch is coming, however how you can cease it.
“The switch is now not a risk; it’s shifting to execution,” Mamdouh al-Abbadi, Jordan’s former deputy prime minister, instructed Al Jazeera. “We’re seeing the sensible utility … The choice homeland is one thing that’s coming; after this West Financial institution, the enemy will transfer to the East Financial institution, to Jordan.”
The ‘silent switch’
The worry in Amman is not only about navy invasion, however a few “smooth switch”, making life within the West Financial institution unliveable to power a gradual exodus in direction of Jordan.
Sunday’s resolution to switch land registration authority to the Israeli Justice Ministry is considered in Jordan as a important step on this course of. By erasing the Jordanian and Ottoman land registries which have protected Palestinian property rights for a century, Israel is clearing the authorized path for enormous settlement growth.
Al-Abbadi, a veteran voice in Jordanian politics, pointed to symbolic however harmful shifts in Israeli navy nomenclature.
“There’s a new brigade within the Israeli military, named the Gilead Brigade,” al-Abbadi famous. “What’s Gilead? Gilead is a mountainous area close to the capital, Amman. This implies the Israelis are continuing with their strategic practices from the Nile to the Euphrates.”
He argued that the 1994 Wadi Araba Treaty is successfully null and void within the eyes of the present Israeli management.
“Smotrich’s ideology is not only the view of 1 individual; it has turn into the doctrine of the state,” al-Abbadi mentioned, warning that the Israeli consensus has shifted completely. “They’re those who killed the Wadi Araba treaty earlier than it was even born … If we don’t get up, the technique shall be ‘both us or them’. There isn’t any third possibility.”
A ‘second military’ of tribes
As diplomatic avenues slim, questions are turning to Jordan’s navy choices. The Jordan Valley, an extended strip of fertile land separating the 2 banks, is now the entrance line of what Jordanian strategists name an “existential defence”.
Main-Basic (retired) Mamoun Abu Nowar, a navy knowledgeable, warned that Israel’s actions quantity to an “undeclared struggle” on the dominion. He advised that if the displacement stress continues, Jordan should be able to take drastic measures.
“Jordan may declare the Jordan Valley a closed navy zone to forestall displacement,” Abu Nowar instructed Al Jazeera. “This might result in battle and ignite the area.”
Whereas acknowledging the disparity in navy capabilities, he dismissed the concept Israel may simply overrun Jordan, citing the dominion’s distinctive social material.
“The Jordanian inside, with its tribes and clans … it is a second military,” Abu Nowar mentioned. “Each village and each governorate shall be a line of defense for Jordan … Israel is not going to succeed on this confrontation.”
Nonetheless, he cautioned that the scenario is risky. With the West Financial institution doubtlessly exploding into a spiritual battle, he warned of a “regional earthquake” if crimson traces are crossed. “Our military is skilled and prepared for all situations, together with navy confrontation,” he added. “We can’t depart it like this.”
The collapse of the US assure
Compounding Jordan’s anxiousness is a deep sense of abandonment by its oldest ally: the USA. For many years, the “Jordanian possibility” —the steadiness of the Hashemite Kingdom — was a cornerstone of US coverage.
However Oraib al-Rantawi, director of the Al-Quds Heart for Political Research, argued that this “strategic wager” has collapsed.
“The guess on Washington … has faltered, if not collapsed,” al-Rantawi instructed Al Jazeera. He pointed to a “paradigm shift” that started throughout US President Donald Trump’s first time period, which noticed Washington transfer its regional anchor from Amman and Cairo to the Gulf capitals, “dazzled by the shine of cash and investments”.
Al-Rantawi famous that even underneath the Biden administration, and now with the return of Trump, the US has proven a willingness to sacrifice Jordanian pursuits for Israel.
“When put to the check — selecting between two allies — Washington will inevitably select Israel with out hesitation,” al-Rantawi mentioned.
He described Jordan’s place as precarious, trapped in a dependency loop. “Jordan is between two fires: the hearth of [US] support on one hand, and the hearth of the risk … the existential Israeli risk to the entity and id,” he mentioned.
Basic Abu Nowar echoed this scepticism concerning US safety, questioning whether or not Jordan’s standing as a key non-NATO ally means something in apply. “Will they apply Article 5 of NATO to us?” he requested. “This provides an absence of credibility to the People.”
Dealing with this isolation, voices in Amman are calling for a radical overhaul of Jordan’s alliances. The dominion has historically maintained a chilly peace with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Ramallah whereas shunning Hamas and different resistance factions, a coverage al-Rantawi believes has been a strategic error.
“Jordan shot its diplomacy within the foot,” al-Rantawi defined, by insisting on an unique relationship with the weakened PA in Ramallah.
He contrasted Jordan’s place with that of Qatar, Egypt, and Turkiye, which maintained ties with the Palestinian group Hamas and thus retained leverage. “Cairo, Doha, and Ankara stored ties with Hamas, which strengthened their presence even with the US,” he mentioned. “Jordan gave up this function voluntarily … or resulting from miscalculation.”
Al-Rantawi advised this reluctance stems from inside fears of empowering the Muslim Brotherhood inside Jordan, however the price has been a lack of regional affect simply when Amman wants it most.
Making ready for the worst
The consensus among the many elite is that the time for “diplomatic warnings” is over. The language in Amman has shifted to mobilisation and survival.
In early February, the dominion formally resumed its obligatory navy service programme, often known as “Flag Service”, ending a 35-year hiatus. The Jordanian armed forces acknowledged the transfer goals to “develop fight capabilities to maintain tempo with trendy warfare strategies” amid complicated regional circumstances.
Al-Abbadi went additional, calling for common conscription to make sure whole readiness. “We ask the state for obligatory conscription; everybody in Jordan should have the ability to bear arms,” he mentioned.
He additionally urged cultural mobilisation. “We should educate our youngsters at the least the Hebrew language, as a result of he who is aware of the language of a folks is secure from their evil.”
Calling for strict monitoring of the King Hussein (Allenby) Bridge crossing, he added: “If there’s a gradual, camouflaged switch … we should shut the bridges instantly and with out hesitation.”
Because the Israeli Justice Ministry begins rewriting the land deeds of the West Financial institution, erasing Palestinian possession in ledgers simply as their properties are erased on the bottom, Jordan faces its most precarious second since 1967. The buffer is gone, and the dominion finds itself standing alone within the path of the storm.
“The world offers speeches, everybody condemns … and Israel acts,” al-Abbadi mentioned. “If we don’t get up … the technique shall be: ‘Both us or them’. There isn’t any third technique.”
