Marco Rubio provided a extra supportive message to Europe on the Munich Safety Convention yesterday than J. D. Vance did a 12 months in the past. Wolfgang Ischinger, the chair of the convention, thanked him for the message of reassurance, including, “I’m undecided you heard the sigh of reduction on this corridor.” This even supposing Rubio, like Vance, clearly misunderstands Europe and is in denial concerning the threats going through the US and the transatlantic alliance.
In 2025, Vance mentioned that the risk he nervous essentially the most about for Europe isn’t Russia, China, or another exterior actor. It was the “risk from inside,” significantly perceived restrictions on free speech. Vance’s assault landed like a bombshell in Europe. Within the weeks that adopted, Vance’s position within the Oval Workplace showdown with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Signalgate leak (by which he wrote “I simply hate bailing Europe out once more”) bolstered his repute as Europe’s strongest critic within the Trump administration.
Serving because the administration’s extra diplomatic good cop, Rubio used his time at Munich to emphasise ties between Europe and the US. He informed the viewers: “We would like allies who’re pleased with their tradition and of their heritage, who perceive that we’re heirs to the identical nice and noble civilization, and who, along with us, are keen and in a position to defend it.” Additional emphasizing unity and shared goal, he added, “We are going to all the time be a toddler of Europe.”
Rubio additionally tried to contextualize President Trump’s “direct” method as a part of the noble “process of renewal and restoration,” important for each the alliance and for Europeans themselves. “We in America have no real interest in being well mannered and orderly caretakers of the West’s managed decline,” Rubio declared. Europe, he defined, had an excessive amount of religion in open borders and worldwide establishments when the one true protection of the world order is tough energy—and the army funding that calls for.
This story about Trump rescuing Europe from its short-sighted pacifism and basic malaise is one you hear usually, together with from Europeans akin to NATO Secretary Common Mark Rutte, but it surely’s not true. Contemplate the next.
On protection, Europe has been rearming quickly over the previous decade. Non-U.S. NATO members elevated their protection spending by $70 billion a 12 months in the course of the first Trump administration, then by $190 billion within the Biden administration. The steep rise was largely in response to the rising risk from Russia, but it surely signifies that Europeans had been significantly investing in their very own protection nicely earlier than Trump’s reelection.
It will be equally improper to assert that Europeans have outsourced Ukraine’s protection to the US, provided that Europe has been the largest supplier of support to the nation, allocating greater than 132 billion euros from January 2022 to December 2024, in contrast with 114 billion euros from the U.S., based on the Kiel Institute for the World Financial system. Europe’s contribution has grown since Trump took workplace once more, and U.S. support flatlined.
Even earlier than Trump returned to energy, the European Union’s asylum coverage had shifted towards tighter border controls, sooner processing, and a rising effort to evaluate asylum claims earlier than permitting migrants in. The EU had additionally begun “de-risking” the economies of member nations by limiting Chinese language funding, backing American export controls on superior chip-making gear to China, and lowering dependence on Chinese language provide chains.
However the actual downside was not what Rubio bought improper about Europe. It was what he selected to not say in any respect.
The large geopolitical story of this second, aside from Trump, is the rising alignment and cooperation between Russia, China, and North Korea. Beijing and Pyongyang at the moment are actively concerned in a significant battle in Europe. China helps Russia reconstitute its army and North Korea has despatched weapons and troops. Russia has returned the favor by providing worthwhile army expertise and know-how to each nations. Senior U.S. army and political officers have informed me that they’re significantly nervous about North Korea’s cooperation with Russia and what it means for peace on the Korean peninsula.
This authoritarian alignment is essentially the most profound risk that the US and its allies, in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, face. But there was no point out of Russia or China in Rubio’s speech. He touched on each within the questions and solutions however didn’t characterize them as strategic opponents or a risk to the alliance. This appears to be a part of a sample for the administration. In January, Undersecretary of Protection for Coverage Elbridge Colby gave a significant speech in South Korea with out ever mentioning North Korea. It’s like one thing out of Harry Potter—the risk can’t be named.
Extra perniciously, the Trump administration needs to readmit Russia to the G7 and has requested Russia and China to affix Trump’s Board of Peace (Russian chief Vladimir Putin mentioned sure, China mentioned no). In the meantime, Trump officers have appeared eager to alienate the EU and dismiss the “rules-based order” as nothing greater than “cloud fort abstractions,” even supposing these are the very allies and beliefs that the U.S. must compete with China and comprise Russia.
Earlier than arriving in Munich, Rubio informed the press that “the previous world is gone” and that “we reside in a brand new period in geopolitics.” He’s proper, however he misunderstands why. The previous order is fraying not as a result of Europe is weak or complacent or guilelessly reliant on diplomatic establishments, however as a result of authoritarian powers are more and more keen to work collectively to forcefully reshape the world order. On this panorama, cohesive alliances, army deterrence, and financial resilience are important.
By devoting his speech to the perceived shortcomings of America’s buddies as a substitute of the threats posed by the nation’s adversaries, Rubio revealed not solely the Trump administration’s flawed prognosis of this geopolitical second however its dangerously naive technique for managing what’s changing into—thanks largely to Trump—a treacherously multipolar world.
