Lahore, Pakistan – As funerals had been held on Saturday for greater than 30 folks killed in a suicide bombing at a mosque in Islamabad, analysts warned the assault might be a part of a broader try and inflame sectarian tensions within the nation.
A suicide bomber struck the Khadija Tul Kubra Mosque, a Shia place of worship, within the Tarlai Kalan space of southeastern Islamabad throughout Friday prayers.
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In a press release, the Islamabad administration mentioned 169 folks had been transferred to hospitals after rescue groups reached the location.
Hours later, a splinter faction of the ISIL (ISIS) group in Pakistan claimed accountability on its Telegram channel, releasing a picture it mentioned confirmed the attacker holding a gun, his face lined and eyes blurred.
Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif mentioned mosque safety guards tried to intercept the suspect, who opened hearth earlier than detonating explosives amongst worshippers. He alleged the attacker had been travelling to and from Afghanistan.
Safety officers on Saturday informed Al Jazeera that a number of key arrests had been made, together with shut members of the family of the suicide bomber in Peshawar and Karachi. They didn’t make clear whether or not there was proof of their involvement within the plot.
Capital underneath hearth?
Islamabad had seen a relative lull in violence in previous years, however issues have modified in latest months. The bombing marked the second main assault within the federal capital since a suicide blast focused a district court docket in November final yr.
Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based analyst on battle in Afghanistan and Pakistan, mentioned ISIL’s Pakistan department, known as ISPP, claimed accountability for what seems to be its deadliest operation within the nation since its formation in Might 2019.
“Since its formation, ISPP has carried out roughly 100 assaults, greater than two-thirds of which occurred in Balochistan. These assaults embrace three suicide bombings focusing on Afghan Taliban members, police, and safety forces in Balochistan,” Sayed, founding father of the Oxus Watch analysis platform, informed Al Jazeera.
Pakistan has witnessed a gradual rise in violence from fighters over the previous three years. Information launched by the Pak Institute of Peace Research for 2025 recorded 699 assaults nationwide, a 34 p.c enhance in contrast with the earlier yr.
Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban, who returned to energy in August 2021 following the withdrawal of United States forces, of offering a haven to armed teams that launch assaults inside Pakistan from Afghan soil.
The Afghan Taliban condemned Friday’s mosque bombing and have constantly denied sheltering anti-Pakistan fighters.
In October, this very challenge ignited the deadliest border clashes between the 2 sides in years, which killed dozens of individuals and led to evacuations on either side.
A United Nations report final yr acknowledged that the Afghan Taliban supplies assist to the Pakistan Taliban, or TTP, which has carried out a number of assaults throughout Pakistan.
The report additionally mentioned the Balochistan Liberation Military (BLA) has ties with each the TTP and ISIL’s affiliate in Khorasan Province (ISKP), indicating a convergence of teams with distinct however intersecting agendas.
Simply days in the past, Pakistan’s army concluded a weeklong safety operation within the restive southwestern Balochistan province, claiming the deaths of 216 fighters in focused offensives.
A army assertion on Thursday mentioned it adopted the province-wide assaults by the separatist BLA carried out to “destabilise the peace of Balochistan”.
Fahad Nabeel, who heads the Islamabad-based consultancy Geopolitical Insights, mentioned Pakistan is more likely to preserve its hardened stance in the direction of Kabul, citing what he described as Afghanistan’s failure to behave towards anti-Pakistan fighter teams.
He added that officers would in all probability share preliminary findings of the investigation and level to a attainable Afghan hyperlink.
“The upward trajectory of terrorist assaults witnessed final yr is predicted to proceed this yr. Critical efforts have to be made to determine networks of facilitators primarily based in and round main city centres, who’re facilitating militant teams to hold out terrorist assaults,” Nabeel informed Al Jazeera.
Sectarian fault traces
Manzar Zaidi, a Lahore-based safety analyst, cautioned towards equating the most recent bombing with the district court docket assault final yr.
“The final yr’s assault was basically a goal on a state establishment, whereas this one was plainly sectarian in nature, one thing that has actually gone accomplished within the latest instances, and that’s the reason I’ll urge warning towards a knee-jerk response to conflate the 2 incidents,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Shia make up greater than 20 p.c of Pakistan’s inhabitants of about 250 million. The nation has skilled periodic bouts of sectarian violence, notably in Kurram district in northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which borders Afghanistan.
Regional tensions have added to home anxieties.
Zaidi mentioned armed teams within the area backed by Iran stay alert amid “the simmering geopolitical tensions”.
“For Pakistan, it actually has to maintain a detailed eye on how issues develop in Kurram area, the place issues can get uncontrolled and there might be a fallout. The area presently has an uneasy peace; that may simply be instabilised,” he mentioned.
Kurram, a tribal district bordering Afghanistan, has a roughly equal Sunni and Shia inhabitants. It has lengthy been a flashpoint for sectarian clashes and witnessed extended combating final yr.
Nabeel mentioned a well timed conclusion to the investigation might form the federal government’s response and assist forestall the assault from changing into a set off for wider sectarian unrest.
“Nonetheless, the potential for low-intensity sectarian focusing on in several components of the nation is probably going,” he warned.
Sayed added that an examination of Pakistani nationals who joined ISIL and affiliated teams reveals that many got here from anti-Shia Sunni armed organisations.
“The function of those sectarian parts is subsequently an vital consider understanding such assaults. Furthermore, such assaults seem important in facilitating additional recruitment of anti-Shia Sunni extremists inside Pakistan, thereby contributing to IS efforts to strengthen its networks within the nation,” he mentioned.
