Is it proper to check a dividend inventory like Telus Company (TSX:T) with a progress inventory like Shopify (TSX:SHOP)? One is buying and selling close to its 10-year low, and the opposite is nearer to its all-time excessive. My purpose for combining the 2 shares is capital appreciation.
Outlook for Shopify in 2026
Shopify’s flywheel mannequin has picked up momentum. It reported better-than-expected income progress of 32% year-over-year (YoY) within the third quarter of 2025. It additionally witnessed one other record-breaking Black Friday-Cyber Monday gross sales of $14.6 billion, up 27% YoY. All this inspired Shopify to extend its fourth-quarter income progress expectation to mid-to-high twenties.
The fourth quarter is seasonally sturdy, and the primary week of February is the time when the share reaches its seasonal peak. The inventory has surged 20% and above between mid-October and the primary week of February in eight out of the final 10 years. The one two years the inventory really fell in February had been in 2016, when the oil disaster hit, and 2022, when the rate of interest hike triggered a tech meltdown.
Though the Venezuela oil disaster has shocked the oil market, oil costs haven’t dipped considerably as they did in 2016. Shopify could also be at its highest valuations, with a 115 occasions price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, but it surely nonetheless has room for a 15–20% rally within the run-up to its quarterly earnings on February 11. This run-up has nothing to do with valuations and extra with buying and selling momentum that picks up across the earnings launch.
Does this make Shopify inventory a purchase on the present worth? I’d not purchase now, because the 15–20% rally is once more a 50:50 likelihood given the present market uncertainty. The danger is increased than the reward. Nevertheless, if you happen to already personal the inventory, it may be an excellent time to promote and purchase once more within the March-April seasonal dip. The inventory is well-positioned to proceed rising by 40–50% in 2026, pushed by Shopify’s worldwide progress.
Outlook for Telus in 2026
Telus will proceed to get pleasure from steady money circulate from cell subscriptions. This 12 months may very well be a 12 months of restoration for Telus’ share worth because the administration appears to be like to cut back leverage.
Telus inventory has been in a downtrend since April 2022 as a result of excessive debt and slim margins from regulatory modifications. The corporate even paused dividend progress because the falling share worth inflated the dividend yield to eight.8%. Such a excessive yield is sufficiently rewarding shareholders for the enterprise dangers. A $5,000 funding can earn you $443.60 in annual dividend earnings.
The Telus share worth might return to $25 because the leverage ratio decreases from 3.3 occasions to the goal vary of two.2–2.7 occasions. On this course of, the corporate will bear restructuring and should minimize dividends if there are delays in debt reimbursement and the conclusion of free money circulate progress.
If there’s a dividend minimize, the share worth might rally sooner. If there isn’t any dividend minimize, you may lock in a excessive yield for the long run.
Shopify or Telus: Which is a greater purchase?
Shopify is a inventory to purchase on the dip in March when the seasonal weak point displays within the share worth. Telus is a purchase now, as it’s already buying and selling at its 10-year low and is on the level of share worth restoration. There’s a affordable likelihood of a dividend minimize, however the risk-reward ratio is beneficial.
