Suncor (TSX:SU) simply hit a brand new 12-month excessive. Traders who missed the rally in latest months are questioning if SU inventory remains to be undervalued and good to purchase for a self-directed Tax-Free Financial savings Account (TFSA) or Registered Retirement Financial savings Plan (RRSP) targeted on dividends and long-term whole returns.
Suncor share value
Suncor trades close to $65 per share on the time of writing. The inventory is up from $45 final April and hasn’t been this excessive since 2008.
Contrarian buyers who had the braveness to purchase Suncor close to $20 per share are having fun with the restoration. Suncor fell out of favour with the market in 2020 when it slashed the dividend within the early weeks of the pandemic in an effort to protect money movement. This upset buyers who held Suncor for its beforehand dependable distribution.
Suncor ultimately reversed the dividend minimize as soon as the oil market stabilized and has since raised the payout steadily. A brand new CEO took management of the enterprise within the spring of 2023. Up to now two years, Suncor has made good progress on its turnaround efforts.
The corporate minimize workers to streamline operations and has improved effectivity. Suncor reported report manufacturing at its oil sands amenities within the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, whereas additionally delivering report throughput on the refineries. Suncor’s built-in enterprise construction, with manufacturing, refining, and retail operations, traditionally attracted buyers because of the steadiness the diversified income stream offered.
This construction is as soon as once more in focus as Canadian vitality buyers strive to determine how a surge in oil manufacturing in Venezuela will influence Canadian oil sands producers. Refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast require the kind of oil that’s produced in each Canada and Venezuela. Because the U.S. will get extra provide from the South American nation, there’ll doubtlessly be a decline within the oil bought from Canada.
The continued momentum in Suncor’s share value in latest days suggests the market expects the corporate to see restricted unfavourable results from latest developments in Venezuela.
Dangers
Oil costs are down significantly from the 2025 excessive. Actually, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sells for lower than US$60 per barrel in comparison with greater than US$80 a 12 months in the past. Analysts broadly count on oil costs to stay below strain via 2026, barring main provide disruptions brought on by geopolitical occasions. Manufacturing in Canada and america is at report ranges. On the similar time, OPEC is rising output to attempt to recoup misplaced market share. On the demand aspect, China’s economic system stays below strain as a consequence of challenges within the property market and the influence of U.S. tariffs. World oil demand remains to be on the rise, however analysts predict surplus circumstances over the close to time period.
Alternative
Canadian oil producers are already benefitting from the enhance in export capability that got here with the opening final 12 months of the Trans Mountain enlargement. The developments in Venezuela may push the Canadian authorities to get one other pipeline constructed to attach Alberta’s producers to the coast. This may allow Suncor and its friends to spice up output and promote oil at larger costs to international consumers, with out relying as a lot on america.
Time to purchase SU inventory?
The turnaround plan goes properly, and Suncor’s built-in enterprise construction means it’s much less uncovered to giant unfavourable strikes within the oil market. Close to-term volatility is predicted, so a greater entry level may emerge within the coming weeks, however oil bulls ought to be snug proudly owning Suncor on the present value, even after the large run. For revenue buyers, the three.7% dividend yield pays you properly to journey out market turbulence.
