For those who’ve been round EAs lengthy sufficient, you’ve seen it:
A backtest that appears like a straight line up.
Tiny drawdown. Huge revenue. “Too good to be true.”
After which dwell efficiency collapses.
That’s often not “unhealthy luck”.
That’s curve becoming.
Curve becoming (over-optimization) occurs when an EA is tuned to match the previous completely… however has no actual edge that survives new market information.
This submit provides you 7 evergreen checks to identify curve becoming earlier than you waste cash, time, and confidence.
The uncomfortable fact: most backtests are advertising, not proof
A backtest isn’t proof.
A backtest is a speculation.
Your job is to pressure-test the speculation till solely strong programs survive.
For those who bear in mind one sentence:
The cleaner the curve, the extra suspicious you have to be.
Robustness Test #1 — Does it survive unfold will increase?
Many EAs solely work beneath “supreme spreads”.
However dwell markets will not be supreme, particularly throughout volatility.
Check the backtest with:
If outcomes collapse instantly, the EA doesn’t have an actual edge.
That is additionally why dealer selection is a part of robustness.
Brokers I like to recommend for EA execution:
For those who run EAs on poor execution, you’ll misjudge the whole lot.
Robustness Test #2 — Does it survive slippage?
Slippage issues most for:
breakout programs
Gold (XAUUSD)
quick continuation strikes
In case your technique is determined by excellent fills, it’s fragile.
A strong EA ought to stay acceptable even with lifelike slippage.
Robustness Test #3 — Does it work throughout totally different market regimes?
A curve-fitted EA usually appears nice in a single regime:
sturdy pattern interval
secure volatility
clear ranges
Then it fails when regime adjustments.
A strong technique ought to have:
Robustness Test #4 — Does it rely on one tiny parameter?
If altering one quantity barely breaks efficiency, it’s not strong.
Indicators of fragility:
efficiency flips from nice to horrible with small adjustments
“candy spot” settings that have to be precise
dozens of parameters that work together in unpredictable methods
For this reason easier EAs usually survive higher: fewer shifting elements to overfit.
Robustness Test #5 — Does it maintain on totally different time home windows?
A basic curve-fit trick:
A strong EA ought to make sense throughout:
Search for:
Robustness Test #6 — Does it depend on harmful restoration mechanics?
Many curve-fitted fairness curves are secretly supported by:
It might look excellent for months… till it doesn’t get well.
Strong programs management draw back with no need “infinite margin” logic.
Robustness Test #7 — Are you able to validate it ahead with an actual workflow?
Regardless of how good a backtest appears, the ultimate test is all the time the identical:
Demo → small dwell → stability pattern measurement.
For those who don’t observe that workflow, you’ll preserve shopping for “fairly curves” and staying confused.
A clear workflow is right here (bookmark it):
Select dealer first (execution issues)
Demo to confirm habits
Small dwell to substantiate actual circumstances
Run lengthy sufficient to validate stability
Why easy programs usually win long-term
There’s a motive many retail EAs fail:
Easy, rule-based EAs are simpler to:
That’s additionally why my ProTrading EAs are designed to be easy and secure, not “1000-parameter puzzles”.
Two examples of straightforward, strong automation frameworks
USDJPY Pattern (H1)
JPY Pattern EA ProTrading (74 USD)
MT5: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157484
MT4: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157485
XAUUSD Breakouts (M15)
Gold Pattern Breakout EA ProTrading (74 USD)
MT5: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157465
MT4: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157466
They’re constructed to be:
In case your finish purpose is scaling, curve becoming is your largest enemy (Axi Choose)
Scaling capital solely is smart in case your technique is powerful.
In case your system is fragile, scaling simply makes the blow-up larger.
In order for you a prop-style capital path that aligns higher with consistency than typical problem fashions, examine Axi Choose:
https://bit.ly/48TlcAc
It’s value understanding for those who’re critical about systematic buying and selling.
Copy/paste guidelines: 7 robustness checks
Unfold stress check (does it survive wider spreads?)
Slippage stress check (particularly breakouts / Gold)
Regime check (pattern vs vary vs excessive volatility)
Parameter sensitivity (small adjustments shouldn’t kill it)
A number of time home windows (not one cherry-picked interval)
No harmful restoration logic (grid/martingale/publicity stacking)
Ahead validation (demo → small dwell → stability)
Execution issues:
Scaling path to check:
Fast Hyperlinks (EAs + Brokers + Axi)
JPY Pattern EA ProTrading (74 USD)
MT5: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157484
MT4: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157485
Gold Pattern Breakout EA ProTrading (74 USD)
MT5: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157465
MT4: https://www.mql5.com/en/market/product/157466
IC Buying and selling: https://bit.ly/3KvI9RO
Pepperstone: https://bit.ly/4ophy72
Axi Choose: https://bit.ly/48TlcAc
