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Some Canadian shares might outperform international markets subsequent 12 months, it’s true. Most of the nation’s strongest sectors are completely positioned for the themes driving 2026, akin to rising demand for assets, huge infrastructure spending, and a possible rebound. Add in the truth that some prime TSX shares are nonetheless undervalued after years of lagging behind U.S. tech, and also you get a setup the place even modest enhancements might result in outsized positive factors. For buyers, it’s a uncommon probability to see these regular, gritty Canadian names take centre stage. But above all of them, I’d begin watching Nutrien (TSX:NTR).

NTR

Nutrien is the world’s largest supplier of crop inputs and agricultural providers, created via the merger of Agrium and PotashCorp. It produces and distributes the three key fertilizer vitamins of potash, nitrogen, and phosphate, alongside working one of many largest agricultural retail networks globally. This offers Nutrien a novel place within the meals provide chain. It serves farmers in additional than a dozen international locations and gives every little thing from crop safety merchandise to digital agronomy instruments. And since international inhabitants development and rising meals demand require ever-higher crop yields, Nutrien advantages from a gradual, long-term demand base that helps steady money stream.

The dividend inventory can be extremely vertical, controlling each manufacturing and retail. This creates robust efficiencies and cushions earnings when fertilizer costs fluctuate. Nutrien’s built-in mannequin permits it to seize margin throughout the complete worth chain, making it extra resilient than pure commodity producers. Fertilizer markets ought to tighten over the approaching decade attributable to provide constraints and geopolitical points. Due to this fact, Nutrien’s international scale, useful resource entry, and logistical footprint place it as a central participant within the push to extend international meals manufacturing sustainably.

Into earnings

In its most up-to-date earnings outcomes, Nutrien reported robust efficiency pushed by larger fertilizer volumes and improved pricing throughout key nutrient segments. The dividend inventory generated roughly US$1.7 billion in web earnings and US$4.8 billion in adjusted earnings earlier than curiosity, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) for the primary 9 months of 2025. This displays agency international demand and operational efficiencies. Potash gross sales have been a standout, benefiting from elevated output and price benefits. The nitrogen section additionally contributed meaningfully, supported by robust international power dynamics that improved margin competitiveness in comparison with worldwide producers.

Nutrien’s retail division continued to ship steady outcomes, with margin enlargement pushed by improved enter prices and better demand for proprietary crop options. Administration additionally highlighted robust money technology, enabling the corporate to return roughly US$1.2 billion to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks within the third quarter. The dividend inventory reaffirmed its deal with capital self-discipline, ongoing community optimization, and price management, elements that strengthen its outlook heading into 2026.

Trying forward

Nutrien is now set as much as outperform international markets subsequent 12 months. It sits on the centre of one of the crucial sturdy megatrends on the planet: the rising want for meals manufacturing. With geopolitical instability disrupting fertilizer provide chains, excessive climate affecting crops, and international populations persevering with to rise, farmers should more and more depend on high-quality, constant fertilizer inputs to spice up yields. Nutrien’s unmatched manufacturing scale, significantly in potash, offers it pricing energy when markets tighten. If fertilizer costs proceed to stabilize or transfer larger, Nutrien’s earnings leverage can translate into significant upside for shareholders.

The dividend inventory must also outperform as its built-in mannequin permits it to seize development not simply from fertilizer pricing however from enlargement in retail providers, digital agriculture, and value-added crop options. This creates a number of pathways for earnings development. Development unbiased of commodity cycles, one thing most international friends can’t match.

Backside line

With robust money stream, a shareholder-friendly capital return technique, and a valuation that continues to be enticing relative to long-term earnings potential, Nutrien gives a powerful mixture of stability and upside. But even now, buyers can seize it buying and selling at 16 instances earnings, with a 3.7% yield. Right here’s what $7,000 might herald proper now.

If international markets face volatility whereas agricultural demand stays agency, NTR might simply turn into one of many TSX’s prime performers in 2026.