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Lower than two hours after polling stations closed on Sunday, it was clear that Colombia’s presidential race could be settled in a run-off between two finalists: hard-right political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella and leftist Senator Ivan Cepeda.

Although the general consequence shocked few, de la Espriella’s sturdy exhibiting upended pollsters’ predictions.

Cepeda, President Gustavo Petro’s chosen successor, had been anticipated to win probably the most votes, based mostly on public opinion surveys.

However as an alternative, de la Espriella got here in first place, profitable 43.74 p.c of the vote. Cepeda trailed with 40.90 p.c.

Supporters of de la Espriella, a prison defence lawyer, held rapturous celebrations within the coastal metropolis of Barranquilla, the place the candidate has an workplace.

“Colombia gained, and with greater than 10 million votes, democracy gained,” mentioned Elsa Suarez, a de la Espriella voter residing in Bogota.

The far-right candidate has modelled himself after politicians like Donald Trump in america and Javier Milei in Argentina, flamboyant media personalities who gained the presidency regardless of having little to no political expertise.

Like them, de la Espriella has pledged a return to “regulation and order”, in addition to a pared-back nationwide authorities and insurance policies to assist conventional household values.

Notably, he guarantees to make use of an “iron fist” to stamp out crime and construct megaprisons to jail criminals, mimicking the insurance policies of Salvadoran strongman Nayib Bukele.

Analysts say de la Espriella’s populist messaging resonated with voters in Colombia’s inside, the place city crime is a rising concern.

Electoral maps present de la Espriella besting Cepeda in 16 of the nation’s 32 departments, primarily within the coronary heart of Colombia and alongside the border with Venezuela.

“In additional central areas and nearer to the capitals, folks prioritise safety,” defined Laura Bonilla, the deputy director on the Peace and Reconciliation Basis (PARES), a Bogota-based analysis nonprofit.

Against this, de la Espriella’s safety messaging did not sway voters alongside the coast and in border areas by insurgent violence.

Bonilla argues that folks in these areas as an alternative place higher worth on the socioeconomic points that Cepeda represents, because the continuity candidate for Petro’s Historic Pact social gathering.

“Over the previous 4 years, they’ve acquired fixed consideration from the federal government,” mentioned Bonilla, citing state growth initiatives beneath the Petro administration.

A blow to the conservative institution

De la Espriella’s success additionally highlights rising anti-establishment sentiment in Colombia, in keeping with consultants.

The lawyer, who has by no means run for public workplace earlier than, comfortably beat his essential rival on the proper, Senator Paloma Valencia, who was backed by former President Alvaro Uribe, the figurehead of Colombian conservatism.

Initially, Sunday’s election was predicted to be an in depth race between Valencia and de la Espriella, each of whom lagged behind Cepeda within the polls.

However as Sunday’s ballots have been tallied, Valencia flopped with lower than 7 p.c of the vote.

Miguel Silva, a Colombian political marketing consultant, credited a few of de la Espriella’s success to his marketing campaign messaging.

De la Espriella, he defined, used his marketing campaign to attract a distinction between the haves and the have-nots, those that have benefitted from the federal government and those that really feel ignored.

“He [succeeded] by portraying himself and the folks he represents as ‘Los Nunca’ and by portraying Paloma and her followers as ‘Los Siempre’,” Silva mentioned, utilizing the Spanish phrases for “The Nevers” and “The At all times”.

Pollsters predicted the proper could be divided within the first spherical, paving the way in which for Cepeda to win probably the most votes, however de la Espriella captured hundreds of thousands of votes from conventional conservatives, marking a shift in Colombia’s political panorama.

In Bogota, the one province within the nation’s inside to vote for Cepeda, the left-wing candidate’s supporters have been shocked by Sunday’s outcomes.

“Everyone seems to be a bit shocked,” mentioned Juan Camilo Rodriguez, who voted for Cepeda. “These outcomes don’t match the polls.”

Petro himself had hammered his base to flood the polls, warning that the left’s possibilities of success might be hampered by electoral fraud.

The outgoing president rejected final evening’s outcomes, which have been based mostly on the “pre-conteo”, or preliminary rely, a non-legally binding course of.

As an alternative, Petro known as on the general public to attend for the official, scrutinised rely, which might be launched within the coming days.

Cepeda echoed the president’s scepticism in a speech on Sunday evening. “Solely as soon as the vote-counting committees have totally, clearly, and totally clarified this matter, will we touch upon tonight’s outcomes,” he instructed supporters.

However the candidate appeared to mellow his stance this morning, acknowledging that there was no proof of irregularities within the vote. He trailed de la Espriella by greater than 670,000 votes.

Specialists warn that Cepeda is shedding treasured time by specializing in fraud allegations and will as an alternative think about swaying average voters.

“By crying fraud so early, it’s exhausting to deliver extra voters to the desk,” mentioned Silva.

A second spherical of voting, between Cepeda and de la Espriella, is scheduled for June 21.

Up for grabs are greater than one million votes for centrist candidate Sergio Fajardo and 1.6 million for Paloma Valencia. Whereas Valencia endorsed de la Espriella, her working mate, average politician Juan Daniel Oviedo, didn’t.

Miguel Jaramillo Lujan, a Colombian political strategist, mentioned the ultimate two candidates should tread fastidiously within the subsequent three weeks to prevail.

“Because the saying goes, whoever makes fewer errors would be the winner.”